Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robwin who wrote (16406)	5/23/2001 9:00:42 AM
From: William B. Kohn	Respond to of 30051

I'm not so sure that I think the BTB will go up next month. I am more inclined to believe the following, sales will still be very weak and that cancellations may escalate. If the BTB goes up because shipments went down faster than orders came in, that won't be a good thing even if the number goes positive. Larry is right that the market is a great forward indicator, but it has been wrong as well. The depth of this tech down turn is still very much up in the air, and Fed easing may not have a great deal to do with the solution. I'm inclined to believe that the balance of this year and perhaps much of next will be at best a basing around where we are today, and that any movement forward will likely come in 2003 or perhaps even 2004. Given that, I still am a bear between now and mid- 2002. I realize this has become a very bullish thread, but I remain singularly unconvinced of the future. Bill