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To: Roebear who wrote (91106)	5/23/2001 9:45:01 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear. Speaking of money supply... From Don Hayes' commentary this week. "Earlier this month, the 13-week annualized growth rate of MZM money supply was at 28%..." However, he goes on to express expectations that inflationary problems will last only a few months. Saw no reference in his comments (via article in ST.com) to the 11 Billion $ injection by the NY Fed trading desk last Wed or the implications of same. In fact, that growing stagflagation is a more likely scenario than his call for a resumption of deflationary trends beyond the next 90 days. Certainly going to be interesting to see which outcome emerges dominant. And we won't have long to wait.(g) Isopatch

To: Roebear who wrote (91106)	5/23/2001 12:16:23 PM
From: rails99	Respond to of 95453

Roebear: OT/ Thanks for the post. Very interesting to see which way this day goes from here. Looks like the fed can not drop rates any more or the POG goes up too fast for their comfort. I believe that the end of the month will give us the trend to follow. Saw that on the increase in liquidity last week. Reading CBS MarketWatch on the federal news showed three different times the fed acted at the minimum with buybacks. Can't go on forever or the only thing left will be shortest term bills and junk bonds. AG wont like the switching to junk bonds will he? Amazing the long bond is so dead and dying. What a pickle for the position for king dollar. I do not worry though, our government will raise taxes till they can help all the boomers retire on their social security in peaceful bliss. They can rely on their massive savings accounts, too; and all the new retirement accounts they will invest in the market. Back to work. Best to you; Rails PS: Remember about two years ago or so? AG said (in so many words) that the only investments he had were the short treas bills. Guess he knew what he was going to do, no doubt!

To: Roebear who wrote (91106)	5/23/2001 3:09:49 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear re: that article... Hmmm; The Fed "intervening" in the free markets ? - whodathunkit ? ... and kodiakbullshyster thinks you have to believe in conspiracy theories to be long gold (roflmao) ~ he thought the ESF & the PPT were figments of the imagination of the Black Heliocopter crowd. The Euro is crashing, the US Dollar is a joke - but, it's the only safe currency haven for now.... but; tic-toc ~ it's day is coming & there is one obvious & historically supported monetary alternative - gold. German inflation is ramping, the Arabs are receiving debased, 24x7 US printing press fired fiat-dollars for their oil... they'll want guarantee's in gold and will hedge via buying gold. Greenpump is between a rock & a hard place... it's when, not if a crisis develops & gold wins either way. The longer Greenpump intervene's & manipulates the market - the more coiled the spring becomes... As the June Gold contract rolls over - the base is forming here for the next leg up. I'm actually nervous "only" being 25% PM weighted here (VBG). - but, I'm only a few tic's away from some gtc re-average back in limit orders. I've got layered gtc buy orders on PM's along with Black Gold & NG shorts - with gtc short limits on any unforseen upside. API & AGA trend is giving us a freebie early-short trade here... this most recent inflow of money atop Bush's Energy Plan may come right back out given the Senate re-balancing created by the defection of the esteemed Senator from Vermont... key committee chairmanships etc - will be reversed... The US economy is slowing & there is a massive credit crisis building; the book to build in the Semi's hit a new low today (.42 I think)... and let "anything" knock consumer sentiment down another notch & the Big "R" hits the media headlines again... the US Consumer is tapped out - period. ********************************************************************************* Short the US dollar on any & all further strength Short Oil & Gas stocks on any & all further strength (untill we get an API/AGA build reversal & strong draws). Go long PM-gold/silver on any & all further weakness - it don't get no-mo simpler than that.