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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (11061)	5/23/2001 11:01:20 AM
From: cfoe	Respond to of 12623

I just PM'd a colleague who is a substantial client at MSDW and asked him to get and e-mail me the report. If I get it, I will post it (or at least a summary). My guess is its on valuation, but just a guess.

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (11061)	5/23/2001 11:57:06 AM
From: James Calladine	Respond to of 12623

ANALYSTS, AH YES, ANALYSTS.... Remember these guys are "sell-side" analysts. The REASON could be as simple as: -- a major short position that has to be covered before things get entirely out of hand -- wanting to make a major buy, but wanting to pay a cheaper price and so on...... The average analyst's relationship to genuine analysis and impartial recommendation is about the same as G.W. Bush's relationship to conservation and preservation of the environment...... Namaste! Jim

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (11061)	5/23/2001 12:07:55 PM
From: Rustam Tahir	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

Here's MSDW's note on CIEN: We downgrade CIEN from an Outperform-V to a Neutral-V rating. We recognize that CIEN remains the best-positioned company in the optical sector. However, our valuation work suggests the stock has limited upside from current levels. • We believe Sprint’s spending is at risk. Our industry checks indicate that Sprint could delay network upgrades. We estimate that Sprint accounted for 20-30% of CIEN’s C1Q01 rev. • We believe the AT&T metro DWDM contract is worth roughly $40-50MM. We believe the contract was baked into mgmt’s C2001 guidance. We expect AT&T to announce in the next few months an optical switch contract with CIEN.