Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (104181)	5/23/2001 10:54:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Tip: An update. I've been more or less on the sidelines since the commencement of this remarkable rally (except for a few small "core" positions and gold stocks). My exit from virtually all short positions just before the rally got underway was as much good luck as good management. It was simply a case of thinking the preceding "dump" had been too precipitous and that a rally was due. I did get sucked back in when the market started to wilt, but fortunately, the new positions were tiny. I may well be "early", but I think the rally has pretty much run its course, hence I will be looking for opportunities to re-enter. I am not interested in calling the peak on this thing, so I will wait for solid evidence of a reversal before I get too cute about it. As is usually the case, I will "scale in" via "MB thirds". My point of view is founded on the following: - the warnings period for the tech sector is just getting underway and it is going to be the worst that I have ever experienced. No ifs, no buts, no maybes, this one is shaping up to be a "hell-dammer" (last night's semi equipment book-to-bill provides a perfect curtain rise for what I expect). - the bond markets appear to be painting Greenboink into a corner. He has very little room to move now. - While some of the recent consumer numbers provided a respite, much of this was a response to "rebates" and "fire sale" pricing. The general trend in consumer spending and consumer confidence is more than worrisome. Yes, consumers are re-financing their real estate in record numbers, but a significant amount of the acquired cash appears to be targeted to maintenance of current life style. Retailers are NOT seeing any significant resurgence in spending and the infrastructure indicators (inventories, transportation activities, etc) are worse than unhealthy. - lay-offs continue unabated. For me, this is the single most important influence on the future direction of the U.S. economy and it has been unrelenting. While there is a lag, nevertheless, its longer term impact is ALWAYS ugly. - in spite of a well orchestrated attempt by the world's central bankers to reflate their economies, it isn't having the desired/expected impact. Dry powder is being expended quickly. - real estate markets in the U.S. are cooling. Yes, so far it is only obvious in specific pockets, but it is spreading. As this trend expands, it will place a very wet blanket on large sectors of the economy that have been vibrant for a long period of time. - while it is still strong, the underpinnings of the US$ continue to weaken. European "mattress money" conversion won't last for much longer. - Gold is awakening. If the Central Banks lose control of it as a result of reduced availability of gold lease contracts, it could become explosive. - The contraction currently gathering momentum is not regional. Very few jurisdictions on our little planet evidence immunity to it. Several are already stricken with nasty symptoms. This rally has been based on rather silly ideas that have no basis in reality (the second half rebound, the "bottom is in", etc.). Unfortunately the PEs have once again been run up into the troposphere. With no fundamental support beneath them, gravity beckons. Making things worse, the alignment of so many negatives suggests that once the bear market re-establishes itself, the descent could become very steep in a very short time frame. Best, Earlie