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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SpecialK who wrote (631)	5/23/2001 3:06:54 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95765

The post on backlog, #624, only shows the change in backlog from month to month and then a total for each of the cycles shown in the 6 columns. The item that is missing is what was the starting backlog for the companies in Jan of 1995. I do not have that information so I can only "guess" at a number. Since the shipments in 1995, on a monthly basis, was on the order of 1B per month average, a reasonable backlog number might be 6B to 9B using the assumption of 6 to 9 months of backlog. Some starting number for backlog in Jan 95 has to be used otherwise adding up the numbers in the first 4 columns of the table create a negative backlog. The important point of the table is, however, the tremendous increase in relative backlog during the period of Jan 99 thru Nov 00, a 23 month period. Secondly, the backlog reduction over the past 5 months has been very significant. This backlog reduction of nearly 3B has significantly eaten into the 8.7B of backlog accumulation over the previous 23 months.