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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: trilobyte who wrote (47159)	5/23/2001 8:03:15 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I consider myself a "rational" poster. Since I sold the lions share of my holdings before the top, last year, I don't believe they started to drop too early. I believe that they started to drop because the highs more than discounted the up cycle even if it had not been discontinued by the bursting bubble. I have a more difficult time with the current strength because it smacks of the "greater fool theory" that drove most techs the past few years. When you say "way earlier" here, you mean the prices are discounting some future dream that has not been quantified. AMAT peaked at $10B, hopes for $20B some time in the future (2005 is the latest guess) and seems to be settling in at $5B. $20B is worth $100 - 150, (20-30PE , 4-6 P/S). What is $5B with no earnings and little sign of improvement worth?