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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7094)	5/23/2001 12:08:14 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

But Yahoo's revenues are starting to decline, and they are teetering between profitability/losses. Seems to me like you still have a nice opportuntiy to lock in some gains there William!

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7094)	5/23/2001 12:10:05 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 57684

Found it. I should have just let this article state my case instead of rambling on endlessly last night. Please read it, if only as a favor to me? The Great Commodities Bull of the 00's lemetropolecafe.com "In the wild and crazy years of the 1970s, equity markets breached terrible bear market lows. OPEC nations had their act together and were agreeing to limit production of oil, inflation was raging as the money supply grew at previously unimaginable rates following the US default on the gold dollar, the Islamic world was trying to invade and destroy the tiny nation of Israel yet again for the third time, and commodity infrastructure had been ignored during the go-go stock market days of the mid to late 1960s" Funny how the more things change the more they remain the same, and it's not different this time! OPEC is putting on the squeeze, and Greenspam is printing money as fast as he can. There is turmoil around the world and epsecially in the middle east.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7094)	5/23/2001 12:43:30 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

>> There is a new generation in the US forming households with all the attending demand. << Demand is growing for commodities and raw materials all around the world. Yes, their was a blip in 1998 from the Asian crisis, and that was probably the low point for the cycle in commodities. Yes, after nice gains in 1999/2000 commodities weakened over the last several months because of the fears over the US economy. Another buying opportunity presents itself! >> But productivity-enhancing technology will be all the more valuable... << But we've had "productivity-enhancing technology" since the beginning of time! You were speaking of the railroads earlier. Those enhanced productivity. Then it was things like the telephone and telegraph. People could do business over the phone, which increased productivity. Now it's done with fiber optic cables & the internet. William, there is always going to be technological progress and productivity enhancement to go along with it. We still had bear markets that went on for quite a number of years despite this. So technological progress does not = stock prices going up all the time. If so, why did our stock market go down in the first place? Why were there more stocks down than up in 1998, 1999, and 2000? After all look at all the new productivity enhancing technology that has come on stream in the last 3 years! >>...during moderate inflation, << All the signs have pointed to increasing inflation for quite a while. Only now people aren't ignoring it so much. You do understand that it's in the government's best interest to lie and manipulate inflation statistics don't you? Will you at least agree with me on that? >> and growth stocks do best during periods of moderate inflation << Obviously my whole thesis rides on the belief that we will have major inflation in the coming years. The signs are already there, and have been for a while. The government just manipulates the statistics for their own benefit. They are constantly tweaking the ways to calculate stuff like the CPI to make it appear much lower than it is. Don't believe the government, trust your common sense!! Gasoline futures just hit a new contract high. Look at how much more you have to pay for food in the grocery store. Look at your energy bills, Bill. Everything you buy on a consistent basis has gone up much more than 3%! Look at a pack of smokes. Look at alcohol. Things people buy everyday. Sure tv's, computers, vcr's, cd players, and most other consumer electronics have fallen. But you don't buy those everyday or every month like you do gasoline, food, smokes, booze, and energy. You buy those items every few years or longer.