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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (47165)	5/23/2001 4:59:25 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

Right. The BTB is going to start improving, because the rate of decline in bookings can't continue much longer. The decline over the last few months has been so steep, it would hit zero in the next 2-4 months, if it continued. Since bookings have to level off in the next few months, while billings are likely to continue declining at a modest pace for a lot longer, the BTB will get better. Past history indicates that bookings are never flat for long. They are either going up or down. And, once a trend is established, that trend usually continues for 12 months or more. So........if bookings are going to bottom in the next 2-3 months, does that mean we will be seeing a sharp upturn in bookings emmediately thereafter? If we don't get a recession, and if consumer spending holds up, and if that consumer spending buys a lot of things with chips in them, then we could see that sharp rebound in bookings be August. Lots of ifs, and I'm staying with short-term trading for now. Set limit orders to buy back NVLS at 48, AMAT at 50 (long, not short), in my IRAs. A new, higher trading range seems to be in play. AMAT was in the 40-50 range from 11/00 til mid-4/01. We may spend as much time in the 50-to-.....58?? range, allowing me to make several trips. I'm doing my patriotic best to make sure the anticipated budget surplus (heavily dependant on cap gains taxes) happens.