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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (73537)	5/23/2001 3:58:09 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 93625

OT -- I know all about the NVDA and TDFX. I fallowed them closely for long time. It is interesting that when I shorted TDFX about 3 years ago, I was vilified on the thread (though eventually the relationships became very friendly). However, I made my biggest gains in TDFX after they announced they'll be closing shop. I bought ~300,000 shares at average of $0.13. I sold most of it around $0.45 and am holding on to the rest. The expectation is that every 44 TDFX will be changed to 1 NVDA. Seeing how TDFX trades ~$0.29, that is a 7 fold gain that justifies the risks...hell, I'll even settle for half of that. ST [edited] I forgot to say, their point was that the current technology was faster than AGP bus could support. Hence no point in using RDRAM.

To: Bilow who wrote (73537)	5/24/2001 7:23:14 PM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Carl, Here's an old post of yours from (Oct. 23, 2000): Message 14638953 Is a chipset really $20? Chipset prices for DDR, SDRAM, and RAMBUS? This is an interesting question, in that it shows the current bankruptcy of RDRAM in the desktop market. Intel sells the 815 (SDRAM) chipset for about $45, while the 820 (RDRAM) chipset goes for about $25. The difference in price is due to the low demand for RDRAM as opposed to SDRAM. It is the equivalent of the rebate on P4s that Intel has announced for 4Q00 and 1Q01. The cheaper RDRAM chipsets also means that the motherboards made with those chipsets are also quite cheap, as compared to 815s. This means that Intel makes a lot less money on RDRAM chipsets than it does on SDRAM chipsets, and it is pretty obvious where Intel is going to go as a result. RDRAM has been a disaster for Intel. Now we hear: Message 15850738 The average sales price (ASP) of DDR motherboards has plunged to US$80 from US$120, the price when they first entered the market. However, demand has failed to pick up and therefore new products are not needed. So since low price equates to low demand (based on your statement above) I'm expecting that you'll agree at this point that DDR mobo products have been a "disaster" (to use your word) for the industry. Dave p.s. Here's some more from the article, if it's any help: In contrast, DDR motherboard shipments, after reaching their peak in March due to VIA Technologies and Nanya Technology’s bundle sale projects in that month, have gradually declined. Currently, first-tier motherboard makers on average are shipping 50,000-80,000 DDR units a month. Motherboard makers pointed out that the gloomy outlook for the PC market means system manufacturers will not be interested in products based on a new architecture. Of the present motherboard lines, PC133 SDRAM motherboards are very mature products, and their low prices make them consumers’ top choice. Moreover, the combination of DDR SDRAM and Pentium III only boosts performance by less than 10%. For consumers, DDR motherboards are not attractive enough in price or performance. Gigabyte noted that, at present, its OEM clients have larger demand for development of Socket 478 motherboards that support PC133 memory, and its present product lines are sufficient to meet the current demand. Asustek pointed out that because of rapid drops in DDR memory prices, distributors in the clone market, who were originally expected to be the driving force of DDR demand, are currently not ordering DDR modules without first receiving orders from consumers. They have even taken to ordering DDR motherboards weekly to avoid losses resulting from DDR SDRAM price declines.