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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suresh who wrote (32450)	5/25/2001 4:39:58 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70241

Suresh, ADCT CC indicating that most ILEC's not spending at rate that would be consistent with no reduction in Cap Ex budgets. It would require a very accelerated rate to meet those levels. An analyst suggested a survey of top 10 carriers has only spent 1/4 of Cap Ex budgets in Q1 of year only. Industry survey indicates that about 80 percent of the capacity is being used. Would indicates that they would run out of capacity in next 2 months. Cap Ex spending does not indicate that is the case for ADCT. Still strong growth in Optical Components, especially tunable lasers. Expect Raman Amplification to generate demand for pump lasers. As demand has slow for ADCT's customers there has been some slowing in demand for components. In terms of metro components, there was not slow down in demand. NT leaving DSL segment affects ADCT as they supplied components to NT. ADCT DSL prodcuts offering broader than NT and has more industry acceptance. Expect they will still do well. (I did not get the impress that were super bullish on this point). System integration business going strongly. Install a lot of other manufacturers equipment implied as ADCT sales were soft in Q. Taking share in segments (My guess BBOX). No specifc trend in the spending patterns of MSO's (cable), IXC's, ILEC's or CLEC's. Seeing range. Most ILEC's have good cash levels and cash flows. Some CLEC's also have good cash and cash flows. Others are conserving cash and have weak caash flow. IXC's in middle for spending patterns. In cable industry need to take MSO by MSO.

To: Suresh who wrote (32450)	5/25/2001 4:39:58 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70241

Suresh, ADCT CC indicating that most ILEC's not spending at rate that would be consistent with no reduction in Cap Ex budgets. It would require a very accelerated rate to meet those levels. An analyst suggested a survey of top 10 carriers has only spent 1/4 of Cap Ex budgets in Q1 of year only. Industry survey indicates that about 80 percent of the capacity is being used. Would indicates that they would run out of capacity in next 2 months. Cap Ex spending does not indicate that is the case for ADCT. Still strong growth in Optical Components, especially tunable lasers. Expect Raman Amplification to generate demand for pump lasers. As demand has slow for ADCT's customers there has been some slowing in demand for components. In terms of metro components, there was not slow down in demand. NT leaving DSL segment affects ADCT as they supplied components to NT. ADCT DSL prodcuts offering broader than NT and has more industry acceptance. Expect they will still do well. (I did not get the impress that were super bullish on this point). System integration business going strongly. Install a lot of other manufacturers equipment implied as ADCT sales were soft in Q. Taking share in segments (My guess BBOX). No specifc trend in the spending patterns of MSO's (cable), IXC's, ILEC's or CLEC's. Seeing range. Most ILEC's have good cash levels and cash flows. Some CLEC's also have good cash and cash flows. Others are conserving cash and have weak caash flow. IXC's in middle for spending patterns. In cable industry need to take MSO by MSO.