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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (10886)	5/24/2001 12:52:15 AM
From: cfoe	Respond to of 197001

To all: Be forewarned, numbers follow. Update on CSM chip numbers. Q1-01: In the Q1-01 earnings conference management said the following about CSM chips: CSM chip revenue was less than 10% of QTC revenues CSM 5000 (1X base station chips) are what they are shipping, so ASP is higher than past CSMs CSM 5000 has 32 channels, so cost per channel is lower than with past CSMs They had 3 million channels in backlog at the end of the quarter. Therefore, QCOM had 93,750 (3MM / 32) CSM chips in backlog. What they never gave out was the ASP for CSM chips nor the Volume of chips shipped. Obviously for any given amount of CSM revenue, the higher the ASP the lower the Volume and vice-versa. To come up with these numbers for the model I fell back on the only information I had at that time, which was Seybolds comment at the 9/00 Telescosm Conference that a non-CDMA carrier was going to switch to 1X and that 1X infrastructure was “sold out” for ’01. Since I could not imagine NT, LU, MOT, etc. being sold out, I reached the conclusion that QCOM’s CSM chips were sold out. (Good thinking, wrong conclusion.) So in the model I came up with the following CSM numbers for Q1-01: Assumed 9% of QCT revenue came from CSM chips = $29,705MM Assumed 28,000 CSM chips (30% of 93,750 backlog) Calculated CSM ASP = $1,061 ($29,705MM / 28,000) Subsequent to my posting these results, I received information that indicated the calculated ASP was way too high, and therefore the number of CSMs shipped was way too low. While I felt the same way, I had no information upon which to base more accurate numbers - until Q2. Q2-01: On the Q2-01 call management said that 300,000 CSM chips had been shipped in Q2, filling in one of the missing pieces. I took this and revised my model, resulting in these CSM numbers: 9% of QCT revenue = $32,737MM (I recognize they did not say what % CSM revenue was in Q2, but I am guessing about the same) CSM chips shipped = 300,000 Calculated CSM ASP = $109 ($32,737MM / 300,000) This ASP looks much more reasonable and fits with the information I had gotten after Q1. Applying this back to Q1-01, the numbers look like this. Assumed 9% of QCT revenue came from CSM chips = $29,705MM CSM ASP from Q2-01 = $109 Calculated CSM chips shipped = 272,000 In addition to the feedback I had received after Q1 about the CSM ASP, I also was told that QCOM could ship 3 million channels in about one month or so. Well this looks correct. The 300,000 chips shipped in Q2-01 times 32 channels per chip equals 9.6MM channels shipped in Q2-01, or a little over three times the backlog coming into Q2-01. Now to really tie this down we need to get management to disclose the CSM ASP or a more exact percentage of CSM revenue to QCT revenue. Probably by the time we get this nailed down, we’ll have a new complication to deal with <ggg>. Comments, thoughts....