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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (51677)	5/24/2001 8:21:59 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

Great question, DO! Generally, earnings warning start to have an impact on the markets sometime during the last half of June, unless they are bad, then it is sooner. And while I don't think that earnings will be nearly as bad as expected, I do believe that the media will spin it as such. So as the warnings do come in, I do expect to be blindsided by reports of impending recession once again. And watch out especially for companies like JDSU and Nortel Networks. Being Canadian based companies, I am not certain as to the rules of disclosure with regard to their own country's analysts. Here in the U.S. we use Regulation FD as the standard. . . [at least until the new SEC director abolishes it to "unlevel" the playing field.] . . but what is stopping a Canadian analyst from getting a company report ahead of the public disclosure and playing it for all its worth with the U.S. media. Do you remember the two times in the past 6 months when Nortel shocked the markets suddenly [just AFTER market open as I recall] and sent traders scurrying for cover? If you will notice, Nortel and the tech markets had dropped significantly for several days leading up to the "big news". It was hardly a shock for Wall Street. My guess is that the Individual Investors were the only ones that didn't know ahead of time. I expect more of the same this time around. So whether I believe we will or will not see earnings warnings come in large numbers is irrelevant. And earnings warnings are as good a reason for re-testing lows as any. So the answer is no, I don't think that the Nasdaq will continue to ignore negative guidance through June into July. . . .and yes, I am betting on earnings warnings to provide the "excuse" to retest lows. . . whether or not it is actually warranted. Doesn't get much plainer than that. Thanks much, Rande Is