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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1177)	5/23/2001 10:10:23 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Chip market recovery slips to Q4 - analysts By Philip Blenkinsop AMSTERDAM, May 23 (Reuters) - Plunging orders for chip equipment in the U.S. and gloomy forecasts from European companies suggest the worst semiconductor slump since 1985 will not abate until the fourth quarter at the earliest, analysts said on Wednesday. A number of analysts added that the recent, strong recovery in semiconductor shares might reflect extreme over-optimism. Since March 1, shares in Europe's leading chipmaker STMicroelectronics <STM.PA><STM.MI> have pulled up 50 percent, its nearest rival Infineon <IFXGn.DE> is up 31 percent and ASM Lithography <ASML.AS>, the world's largest producer of lithography systems, has moved up 45 percent. "We think the shares have got ahead of themselves... More and more people are pushing the recovery out to the fourth quarter and the visibility is very poor," said Steve Woolf, analyst at Commerzbank. On Wednesday, a correction bit into some of the gains, with STM down 1.5 percent, Infineon off 4.0 percent and ASML down 5.7 percent. Europe's number three Philips Electronics <PHG.AS>, which also has large non-chip interests, was down 5.0 percent. The gloom set in early after a bearish report on the industry published overnight by the U.S.-based trade group Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). Orders from North American-based chip equipment companies plunged 41 percent compared with March, while the book-to-bill ratio plummeted to 0.42, the worst in 10 years. The ratio means that for every $100 worth of equipment shipped, only $42 worth of new orders were coming in. Analysts from investment bank SG Cowen had expected a book-to-bill ratio of 0.6, down from 0.64 in March -- the eighth consecutive monthly decline of this closely watched measure. Analysts suggest the ratio has probably bottomed out. However, increases in the ratio were likely to come from declining sales rather than increasing orders. GLOOM IN EUROPE In Europe on Wednesday morning, Germany's Infineon -- a unit of electronics conglomerate Siemens <SIEGn.DE> -- warned of a likely third quarter loss amid continued price pressure in wireless and computer memory chips. It also said that inventories of memory chips had started to increase after a period decline. ASML later said it expected to make no profit in the first half of 2001. "This year has been difficult. We've seen serious cancellations and de-bookings, but I think that's almost bottoming out," ASML's Chief Executive Doug Dunn told a CSFB investors conference, adding there should be some pick-up in the fourth quarter. Analysts said the 100 bookings expected for the first half were largely factored in, but some suggested ASML may find it tough reaching the predicted 250 for the full year. "In the current market situation, there are basically no orders. They had been booked for the first half, but have been hit by cancellations. It's not going according to the original plan," said Eric de Graaf, analyst at ING Barings. PROBLEM OF VISIBILITY Some analysts say there is little or no hard evidence to suggest the semiconductor industry will in fact pick up in the final three months of the year. There are simply growing signs that the third quarter will be poor. After that, who knows? Forecasters are fumbling blindly, analysts suggest, and current projections are no more reliable than their shredded predecessors. Most chip downturns are the result of over-supply. Logic suggests that if the backlog is cleared, the market will pick up. In this slump, however, demand is sluggish too. The PC market is poor, while mobile phone groups may struggle to reach the latest projections of 450 million handsets sold. Only the small automotive and industrial sector is growing. "For the first time ever, we're really seeing demand play its part," said Commerzbank's Woolf. One possible spur to PC demand may be the release of Microsoft's new operating system XP due in the autumn. In the meantime, an update from industry giant Intel <INTC.O>, expected on June 7, should give firm clues. Morgan Stanley currently forecasts the year-on-year revenue decline for chipmakers will be most extreme in the August-September period. After then, less heady year-ago numbers will improve the comparison, although inventory corrections should also kick in. "On the manufacturing side, while the revenue comparisons continue to worsen, it's not a great environment," said Stuart Adrian of Morgan Stanley, which has neutral recommendations on Europe's big three chipmakers, but a 'strong buy' for ASML. 15:14 05-23-01

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1177)	5/25/2001 10:47:07 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Justa, Apparently Prudential was out this morning with upgrades on some of the semi's. Not sure too many buyers out there right now?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1177)	5/26/2001 3:57:29 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Justa, Re: "See Novellus under Yahoo news today. There is a huge dumpathon going on." Thanks for pointing that out. The Yahoo Insider Sales page really shows this with a vengeance: 1.8 million shares being sold by Novellus executives during the 30 days ending May 2nd, vs. only 0.7 million being bought, and all of the latter at a big discount via options. Looks like similar activity at KLAC. I have learned the hard way that it is not a good idea to bet against company executives when that kind of thing is going on. biz.yahoo.com