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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47199)	5/24/2001 10:57:45 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

History does not repeat; it merely rhymes. Don't say AMAT should trade at X valuation simply because it has done so in the past. This is the exact type of bubblehead thinking that has existed in the market the last 6 years. You all have learned NOTHING from the past. When AMAT reports three losing quarters, history will repeat itself. NEWS RELEASE: Humans HAVE NOT CHANGED. They're still greedy. They're still fearful. They still kill each other. They still have sex.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47199)	5/24/2001 11:50:30 PM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, RE "What historical valuation are you referring to? The low PSR of 1 in '96, the low PSR 0f ~2 in 98, or where we currently are? Notice how the trend has been up? History does not repeat; it merely rhymes. Don't say AMAT should trade at X valuation simply because it has done so in the past. " So , am I to assume that the PSR and the P/E continues to increase forever? I'd rather use history as my guide than expect these ratios to continue to increase. As we all should have learned over the past several years, a stock price percentage increase can not outperform its earnings growth rate forever. Sooner or later the P/E approaches infinity!!!!!!!! With AMAT low PSR of 1X sales in 96 and 2X sales in 98 and 4 or 5 X sales this time is ridiculous. Each time that makes the P/E higher and higher. The over valuation line must be drawn somewhere. Eric.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47199)	5/25/2001 12:40:58 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

****Why the bulls have it all wrong for now*** 1) Where are all the orders? About a year ago it seemed that every week or so one of these companies would make an announcement about a big order win. Something like "KLIC Gets Order for another l50 Bonders". Have you noticed lately that there has been a scarcity of order announcements? 2) What are we seeing for announcements? Things like NVLS wins INTC's coveted supplier award. ASYT wins award for best landscaping in the area. AMAT cafeteria wins visiting sales rep awards. LRCX wins best landscaped parking lot award. Now these are nice things, but they do nothing for the bottom line. 3) In January all "The Experts" were saying things would pick up in the second half of the year. Hey folks July is 35 days away. Do things look any better now than they did in January? About the same or even a little poorer depending which company you are talking about. 4) The theory that things have to get better because they can't get any worse is indeed a strange one. Would a second round of layoffs by these semi firms convince anyone that things are getting worse? Next Thursday NVLS has its mid-quarter update. AMAT's conference call should have made a lot of savy investors nervous. If NVLS reports next Thursday that there is no change in the dismal outlook, or if they guide to lower estimates I will figure out some kind of hedge for my semi-holdings. 5) The idea that new technology must be adopted or you will perish is simply absurd. Old technology can last a long , long, time if the cost benefit ration favors the old stuff. That's why battleships and airplanes last past 30 years. No matter how modern the plane or the technology the flight time from New York To Chicago is the same that it was 20 years ago.(and the in flight food has gone down hill....peanuts anyone?) 6)If the turnaround was here then we would be hearing of order announcements or contract wins as of now. But its been strangely silent. What are you Bulls hearing that makes you so optimistic? For now ( at least until Sept. or Oct.) pay attention to the bears of the thread. I hate to see the optimists of the thread get mauled without warning. Regards, Jerome