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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (53392)	5/24/2001 10:53:34 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

mindmeld: "I have posted a host of articles refuting everything you say. " You have posted a host of articles. They are gleeful marketing predictions of a bright and rosy future. As such they do not "refute" anything. They promise something. There is a difference. There is an entire industry devoted to manufacturing such promising pablum, and another whole industry devoted to its tamper proof packaging, and another whole industry devoted to spoon feeding it to a hungry public. But it does not "refute" anything. It just says the opposite. There is a difference. The credibility of these sources as a counter to current reality is questionable. Did they predict a massive slowdown and consolidation? Do they explain the economic viability of "everything on the web is free"? Which will happen when every piece of web equipment is free. Which does not bode well for the revenue of companies like Cisco! And speaking of literary hyperbole, I no longer feel so alone and misunderstood when you write to others: "The world isn't falling down around our ears, contrary to your beliefs". I looked back and could not find Victor's statement to that effect. Technology can march forward and leave Cisco in the dust if it wants. These are not mutually exclusive statements. Your world may revolve around Cisco Cisco three bags full... and indeed I wish you all kinds of luck there, in some respect. But not in the way that would inflict continued stock market mania upon us. I think Cisco is easily going to tripple - even quintupple its economic value production over the next decade. But IF (note my careful use of "IF") the market has priced that in to the current stock price, then there is no basis for the stock price to appreciate in this same timeframe. And there is ample factual evidence to suggest that this is indeed the case. The current ratios of price to earnings, cost to economic benefit, risk to reward and so on are FACTS. Like the Bid and Ask, they are more tactile and measurable and certain than any projected steady 74% per year increase in market for Routers or steady 20% per year steady growth in market for switches. I am not so arrogant to assert that you are wrong. But it is obvious that you place more stock in rosy promises than you do in current reality, or the lessons of history as they may extrapolate without too much stretch of the imagination. And this can be dangerous. Perhaps for fun you and I should swap places for a month and argue the cause of the other. It could be most enlightening to the thread. John