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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (47204)	5/24/2001 10:00:47 AM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

SEMI AND OTHER PREDICTIONS: Huge numbers of projections are done based on extrapolation of the past into the future, just based on sets of assumptions, which can prove to be wildly wrong. The most useful projections, in my experience, are those built up of product by product projections built up into company projections, based on market conditions known by the people producing the figures. Since most companies do not reveal this kind of information, (even to financial analysts), it means that people like SEMI have to use the "broad brush" approach. With doubtful results. It is good to remember that even though we THINK we understand what will happen in the future, we NEVER know what actually will happen. Yesterday's senate developments are an example. Was that publicly predicted by anybody? Yet it likely will have substantial "course-changing" effects. Namaste! Jim