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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (37249)	5/24/2001 11:39:24 AM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

Borrowed from da_cheif ctrost.simplenet.com

To: stockman_scott who wrote (37249)	5/24/2001 8:29:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

finally the downturn hits housing it hit productivity already it has crushed consumer confidence it has decimated industrial activity, leading to high underutilization it has led to massive layoffs, which show no sign of ending even service sector is losing jobs, mostly contract mfrs though until now, housing was the staunch pillar of strength and I aint even mentioning basketcase California as a friend recently told me "let those bleeding heart liberals sit in the dark thinking about spotted owls and darting snails" their liberal-dominated State House has perhaps ruined the next 2-3 years of growth anyone notice that since Feb the longbond yields are NOT going down as the Fed eases? this could be having a double effect on housing as layoffs mount, new home purchases pull back but mortgage rates are higher now than a couple months ago they should be careening down to levels seen in Oct98, not so sure, refinances were brisk, but perhaps that spate has abated gold stocks rallied a couple weeks ago either inflation is being sniffed by big bond players or else illiquidity has hit the bond market in stealth fashion a gold run is unprecedented in such times my guess is gold is the response to Fed GreenSnot's irresponsible liquidity avalanche and I aint talking about the Colorado Avalanche, the next victims of the NewJoisey Devils I say Naz is stalling here, and Dow has NONONO business threatening alltime highs we sit at the doorstep of a recession, and simply call it the turnaround bottom out of habit corporations are casting big votes almost weekly with layoffs tech ceo's are "guessing" about 2ndHalf Recovery, while some are honestly claiming to see nothing to hang hats upon for upturn by autumn today Triquint joined NationalSemi (or was it Texas Instruments) and Dell in claiming zero 2ndHalf visibility this Naz bear rally is predicated upon hope and guesswork, but certainly profitable to many momo players housing is the last bastion it is now coming down to earth's reality of a recession I stick with my call for a recession that fools many economists Fed liquidity does NOT forestall a massive excess capacity and overloaded debt situation how long before a highprofile telecom failure? or should I say another failure? RepoMan Alune GreenMoony has few tricks left up his sleeve 250 bpts in cuts, repos here and there for pinprick prodding perhaps the Federal Reslush Reserve can order $50 billion in new computer networks and telecommunication systems and jumpstart the economy??? / jim