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To: craig crawford who wrote (104554)	5/24/2001 2:04:46 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

>>Hold on for a minute there chief. The market PEAKED in 1929. The depression didn't kick in until a couple of years later.<< Sorry, you're mistaken about this. In fact, the depression probably started in 1927, in Germany. The boom in the US stock market was disjunct from global economic conditions, and also US business conditions, which began to worsen in the summer of 1929, sooner for agriculture (1926). Even the stock market was not what it appeared. On September 7, 1929, Business Week reported that of the 2,002 stocks listed on the NYSE, 1614 were lower on August 2 than on January 2, and only 388 had advanced. The bottom fell out of the US economy in late spring, 1930, touching off a round of bank failures, and business failures, culminating, in 1931, in the Great Depression in the US. Other countries had a different time-table. I don't mean to discourage you from investing in commodities - but I think your reasoning is flawed. Commodity prices drop when there is no demand, and go up when there is demand. There is no incentive to produce them without demand. If you think that the economy is recovering, or that we are facing inflation, or that demand from another source (China, say) will increase, by all means, buy commodities.