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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (47234)	5/24/2001 6:36:48 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, as you've pointed out enough people were burnt playing that "no limit poker" game that it may indeed be over. Another thing to consider is that I think many in the industry expect the demand to catch up with the supply and are investing too much in 300mm equipment. But there may be too much infrastructure around. So when the inventory glut is resolved, the growth rate may not be near the previous up cycles. In that case the capex will really take a hit despite chip makers' [marginal] profitability. ST

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (47234)	5/24/2001 7:24:53 PM
From: trilobyte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>I question the assumption that bookings will improve enough >in the September - March period to support current prices. who knows the future! Next March is a far way time... But if business takes off even in a modest way, AMAT will be doing 2b in rev and .50$/share per quarter, more than enough to support a 50$/share price. If business is stronger, we'll see 3b in rev and .90$/share per quarter. That probably implies a double from here, maybe not in 6 months, but perhaps in 18. >no limit poker game decisions must be made based on more serious reasoning, right? >almost destroyed the economies of the SE Asian countries >that borrowed and expanded without regard to real need Good grief, and that is why Taiwan and Korea now have world leading semi industries. I'm sure many countries wished they had been a little more reckless at the time and followed the lead of these countries... I thought that the Korea fiasco of 98 was due to currency speculation. >When you imagine a PE of 50 on earnings from cycle peak >sales, I imagine an enthusiastic participant on the wrong >end of the dot-com fleecing I wasn't implying that 20b and 6$/share represented a cycle peak. Only a step along the way to 30b and 10$/share! If KO and GE can have p.e.'s of 40-60, why not AMAT? Trilobyte p.s. still holding my AMAT purchased in the spring of 1996. No intention of selling.