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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (104669)	5/24/2001 6:36:47 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz or anyone, I am looking at the best, most likely and worst case for the long bond interest rate during this "inflation worry period". Right now my conjecture is 9% best, 12% most likely and 18% worst case. My problem is the parameter of consumer debt and its effect on this number, since I have no idea on when they will have to shut down spending which should be the point that inflation will turn. Anyone have any ideas on this attempt to guess how far the long bond can sell off. Joan