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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hdl who wrote (73622)	5/25/2001 8:37:15 AM
From: SBHX	Respond to of 93625

hdl, Bizarre world. Intel's iA64 is only minimally binary compatible (through basically an emulation strategy) with iA32 (x86). Meanwhile, AMD and transmeta are trying to extend x86 to 64bit while preserving binary compatibility. I wonder why the same reasoning that drove intc to extend 286->386 did not apply here? Perhaps it had something to do with HWP patents and IP? But I would not read too much into these x86-64 things yet. It's probably too early, and mostly on paper anyway. Years away from light of day. --- If one believes that rmbs will prevail in the end and they will own IFX, MU, hynix, and they will eventually emerge triumphant from the legal process, then this stock is severely undervalued. You probably already bought tons and will buy more and more. If one believes the non drdram royalties will dry up, rmbs' actual value as a company should be tied into drdram sales in the next 12 months. There's a way to estimate the revenue from drdram royalties, subtract the expected operating costs, and estimate if earnings is positive or negative. If you do scenario planning based on estimated drdram mkt share in light of sdram P4's, the royalty rates seems to be fairly well understood. Factor in the expected ASP of drdram components over the next 12 months in light of it's need to be within x% of sdram prices. A spreadsheet should work here. Factor in PS2 sales. If you think this number is negative, then it's not too hard to guess what you will do. Similarly, if earnings is positive, one could apply a fair P/E [<g>], and arrive at a number. If you think this number is substantially lower than what it is trading at today, then it's also not too hard to guess what you will do. Either way, someone will be right, and someone will be wrong, and some will just be spectators. The rest is just noise. SbH