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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1192)	5/25/2001 10:09:07 AM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

justa, with all this really bleak news it seems like the market and particularly the naz, should go straight to heck without passing go. but the market seldom acts rationally in a logical relevant time sequence. is it possible, because of a greater number of households invested in the markets, and a quicker and greater knowledge base, that people in general are discounting this negative news, and realizing that in the long run, ie 6-18 months out(g), that the fed will win, and we will have seen a bottom and an eventual recovery?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1192)	5/27/2001 8:37:47 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 10065

Re: Taiwan economy, some more commentary(+ link on Hong Kong): UPDATE 1-Taiwan Q1 GDP growth slumps to lowest in 26 yrs Reuters, 05.25.01, 7:51 AM ET TAIPEI, May 25 (Reuters) - Taiwan said on Friday its gross domestic product growth posted its slowest rise in 26 years and was well below market expectations and official forecasts. The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics said the island's economy in the January-March period expanded by a mere 1.06 percent year on year. The government also lowered its gross domestic product growth target for 2001 to 4.02 percent, the lowest in 19 years versus a previous forecast of 5.25 percent. Economists, reacting to the news, said it was much worse than expected and predicted slower growth would be likely for several more months. Just three months ago, the government forecast a growth rate of 4.02 percent and a Reuters Poll earlier this week of 11 economists produced an average growth forecast of 3.25 percent. Nevertheless, the government tried to put a brave face on the figures. The actual first quarter growth figure "is probably much lower than expectations of all observers," said Lin Chuan, the director-general of DGBAS, but "the first quarter is the bottom, and then the economy will improve slowly." Also lowered were estimates for 2001 trade figures with exports seen falling 5.1 percent from an earlier forecast of a rise of 4.2 percent. Imports were expected to contract a sharp 7.8 percent, compared with a rise of 3.4 percent projected in February. "The situation is much, much worse than anyone imagined," said Frank Gong, the senior currency strategist at Bank of America based in Hong Kong, adding "there are serious structural problems and...a danger Taiwan may develop into a miniature Japan." He said the government was still too optimistic in its growth forecasts for the year which he sees at only 3.0 percent. Some economists immediately cut their full-year growth forecasts based on Friday's data. "I am lowering my 2001 growth forecast to 2.0 percent from 2.8 percent," said Grace Ng, an economist with JP Morgan based in Hong Kong. She added economic growth in the second quarter would be worse yet, falling to 0.4 percent, far lower than the government's projection of 3.26 percent. "I'm not sure what they are basing their hopes on, but if its based on external demand it may not be there," said Ng. The growth figures capped a stream of dismal economic data this week for Taiwan that revealed sharp declines from a year ago in April export orders and industrial output and record high in unemployment for any April. In addition, M2 money supply growth in April hit a record low for the third straight month at 5.03 percent, almost falling out of the central bank's target zone of five to 10 percent. Many economists say the central bank gave a preview of this week's data last week, when it decided to be more aggressive in cutting key interest rates and earlier this week when it allowed the local dollar plunge to a 31-month low. Copyright 2000, Reuters News Service. markets.ft.com