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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (104943)	5/25/2001 5:25:04 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 436258

i'm aware he isn't worried NOW...at least that's what he's saying. as for the expectations for the second half, i'm going to fade them, because that's the CONSENSUS, just as the consensus was that the market would keep rising last summer, and that it would turn around after the presidential election, or that the rate cuts would turn it around (the first three rate cuts were followed by the worst part of the sell-off). what i'm saying is, the market itself will disprove these expectations, by going down. when the BoJ began cutting rates after the Japanese bubble burst, the market did exactly the same thing...first kept going down, then recovered, then plunged again...deflationary supercycle bears are like that. you wouldn't believe how impressive the rallies were from '29 to '32...based on exactly the same expectations. the bullish consensus per the polls has now reached the levels of January 2000...and the positioning measures are likewise closing in on extremes. based on that i would guess perhaps one more push up before we slide back for a re-test of the lows.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (104943)	5/25/2001 5:36:46 PM
From: seminole	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<< no solid basis for a gold rally >> Gold stocks have already rallied. Some people are already worried about inflation. IMO, the reason to have gold here is for a play on the dollar, I ain't no gold bug. Lower interest rates and a weaker economy should yield a weaker dollar. The price of gold per dollar should go up. Unhedged gold stock's earning should rise dramatically.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (104943)	5/25/2001 7:43:26 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 436258

The fact that Greenspan isn't worried about inflation is a great reason to be long gold. Think about it.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (104943)	5/25/2001 7:53:10 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

< There is no way to disprove that today, as it is a future event.> The market often portends these things.... IMO much hands on employment picture. If layoffs continue at this rate it may halt the inflow of dumb money into the market. dAK

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (104943)	5/25/2001 7:54:49 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<Also, there is no solid basis for a rally in gold, until people start to be worried about inflation. I think you'll be right about gold, but you're early. > Then only thing is.... so far being early has netted share owners about 75% on their money. Now if they don't give that back with POG stable at these prices.... then moves up next year... are they early? DAK