Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (41242)	5/26/2001 11:05:10 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

dale: ">Well, Intel has the fastest desktop processo-- Wait a minute, now they don't! Well,at least Intel has the mobile market to themsel-- wait, scratch that, no longer true. Well, they have the workstation and 2-way server mark-- Darn it! No longer true either.< The 4-way and 8-way server markets are the target domain of large cache Xeon processors. AMD will be able to undermine the margin on 512KB L2 cache Xeons because the exclusive cache architecture and 16-way associativity of the Palomino cache provide a better hit rate than the 256KB Xeon, with its inclusive 8-way inclusive L2 cache architecture, but the larger cache Xeons, with their 1MB and 2MB of L2 cache, will remain unscathed until AMD introduces large cache processors. AMD needs Mustang, if for no other reason than to spoil Intel's 1MB and 2MB Xeon markets. If AMD can cripple Intel's margin on large cache Xeon processors, AMD will have justified a run of 50,000 Mustang processors, even if they never sell a single Mustang processor. For some reason, AMD fails to realize this." Trends... 1.Consumer Space: Introduce and successfully market (i.e gain market share) a "win" product across all MHz ranges in the consumer space. (Mission accomplished with the "spry Athy" in a 2 year timeframe and in the face of "monopolistic market inertia" and inumerable obstacles, some happenstance (i.e. weaken market environment of the past year) and some possibly contrived in attempt to maintain status quo...and contrary to unending Pauline FUD along the way)...N.B. The "spry Athy" was voted processor of the year in each of the past 2 years... 2. Mobile Space: Introduce and successfully market (i.e. gain market share) a "clean kill" product across all MHz ranges in the mobile space. Given the distiction between "win" and "clean kill" product features and the tracks already laid down by the "spry Athy" in the consumer space, one can anticipate a much more rapid acceleration in market share gain by the Athlon 4 than by the "spry Athy"...Shouldn't take half the time for the Athlon 4 as it took the "spry Athy" to gain acceptance and 20% mobile market share within 1 year prove wildly conservative...(Production constraint is the major impediment, imo)... 3 (a). Server Space: Introduce and successfully market (i.e. gain market share) a "clean kill" product in the low end server space...Perhaps premature to characterise the June 4 product intro as "clean kill" but such cannot be ruled out inasmuch as it is designed around the same palomino core as is the "clean kill" Athlon 4...(June 4 intro should provide adequate info. (product features and launch partners) to estimate probable rate of market penetration...) (Aside: As this is the first "corporate product" AMD launch, first impression may be lasting...having said that, my guess is that the "price/performance advantage" afforded by the initial "corporate product" intro on June 4 will be large enough to attract not only the interest of "corporate purchasers" but in fact draw some significant "corporate purchases"... 3 (b). Server Space: Introduce and successfully market (i.e. gain market share) a "win" or "clean kill" product in the medium and high end server space...Premature to comment until the dust settles around the level of acceptance of the lowe end "palomino" server...but, any success in the low end, will lay the tracks for success in the medium and high end of the server space. 4. Workstation Space: Introduce and successfully market (i.e. gain market share) a "win" or "clean kill" product in the across all MHz ranges in the workstation space...Any success in the mobile and server spaces will ease market penetration hurdles enormously!!! Like a giant boa, AMD is slowly squeezing the gorilla prey...AMD has a long term plan and AMD is now working that plan!!! The "spry Athy" was the first phase, the Athlon 4 the 2nd phase, the palomino server the 3rd phase and the palomino workstation the 4th phase...For the past 2 years AMD has been "working" phase 1 with remarkable success...Over the next 3 months, revenues (perhaps significant) from phase 2 and phase 3 will become apparent and by the end of the year phase 4 revenues will kick in...By the end of Y2001, AMD will have revenues, perhaps significant, kicking in from not just phase 1 as has been the phenomenally successful case for the past 2 years, but from all 4 phases...AMD revenue growth is about to enter an accelerating phase (i.e 25% avg. growth over next 5 years may be conservative) for the foreseeable future, probably constrained primarily by available production capacity...As "palomino" NDA's are lifted on June 4, much "filler" information and I suspect very positive information around both the Athlon 4 features and server features will surface, not to mention the announcement of additional launch partners for "palomino" mobiles and servers...Such additional information will no doubt support the contention that AMD is verging on a sustainable period of accelerating revenue growth for the foreseeable future as "incremental revenues" derive from the mobile and server spaces to complement the expanding revenues derived from the "spry Athy" market share gains over the past 2 years...Throw in a recovery in worldwide PC demand which is probably in its initial stages right now and the AMD outlook could not be more promising!!!