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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16658)	5/26/2001 1:00:59 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev: I follow all tech stocks(excluding software) that: (1) Stayed above 10 during last 52 weeks (2) Have avg 10 day vol of > 1,000,000 What do you follow that would not be in this list? Larry Dudash

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16658)	5/26/2001 1:49:49 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Well, Zeev, we've got some clarity on the tax cut, including $55-billion going directly to taxpayers (consumers). J6P will most likely blow it right away, and the $100-300 they may get could go to come consumer electronics (DVD players, Computer peripherals, etc). However, it also may go to pay for a couple tanks of gas on a Ford Expedition. Taxpayers will be notified early July of the amount they should be expecting, and checks will be mailed in "Mid-Summer." My definition of Mid-Summer is late July/Early August. Coincidently, it's the middle of the 3rd quarter. This may be enough to keep growth from falling two consecutive quarters. This kind of throws a monkey wrench in the August market bottom scenario. The lack of time in between now and the infusion also seems to muddy the Turnip's inverted "W" scenario. While I have no doubt that we'll have about 20-minutes of euphoria Tuesday when the market opens, I'm pretty sure we expect this market to be taken down to at least 2095 short term, possibly as soon as Friday. The question is, do we bounce, or keep going? Earnings warning season is upon us soon, and more bad economic news is on the horizon. The Fed does not meet until the end of June, and an interim rate cut is not in the cards. Options expiration is June 15, and it is not convenient for the MM's to have an interim bottom no closer than 3-4 days before that date. B2B is due out just before the Fed also. Fed may do 25BP or nothing at all due to the cash infusion from the government 1-month later. A close under 2095 will also bring the COMP under it's 20EMA and 50EMA, which means we're going down. I would suggest the current situation may lend itself more to a drop to re-test the April 4 low than 1850, and a continued move up from that event starting possibly in early July. Maybe we could see an interim low of 1850 around June 11 or 12 with a continued move down to the re-test after the Fed meeting. Just my amateur opinion and speculation. I know the Turnips are much better. What do you think?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16658)	5/26/2001 2:05:15 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

From a technical standpoint, only, there seem to be any number of companies that have some more run left. I agree that the market is intermediate overbought and due for a more serious correction. But, we have, in my opinion, a likelihood that with a short term overbought developing, Friday's(actually Tuesday's) cycle turn and a possible three day rally before the next turn... Some of the generals will likely lead the charge to test their old highs. I give it less than a 50% chance that we actually break out to new highs. My thinking is that by Friday we are rolling over for a more serious decline. However, I reserve the right to not be surprised if any indexes do go to slightly new highs. I just think that something everybody is predicting is simply not going to happen the way they think it is. I will grant you that warnings on top of an overbought market will eventually weigh it down. This is true even though I doubt many of the companies will surprise much as we all know that the economy is in a deep funk... I don't speculate on what might make the market move higher. You and I both know that the market does what it darn well pleases with any information released. One would have thought after the semi's book to bill release the other day that stocks would have been taken out and shot. Instead it was a very boring market. The NAZ's first trick will be to avoid breaking much below 2200 and bouncing back some on Tuesday. If you want a bullish impetus to explain a market run then keep your eyes on IBM. If that baby runs past 120 there will be plenty of exuberance for a couple days...The chart looks to me like it could. Regards, Mike