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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (8066)	5/26/2001 3:41:22 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 52237

bullish slant from greenspan Message 15852883

To: Chris who wrote (8066)	5/26/2001 7:37:22 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

I have a sell on weekly non-tech but not tech yet. Also the weakness of my system is it gets an additional week to "make up it's mind" since there is a momentum component in the formula with an averaging component thus if next week was up big enough, it could cancel out the sell. I trade it by placing my order on the signal then just keep my stops close until it stays a hard signal so just take my stuff with a grain if salt until you get used to it. However, I do expect this sell signal to bear some fruit since at least on the DOW, it occured at the intersection of two forks which have been pretty reliable up until now as seen here... marketswing.com ====== Regarding alternative energy, see my comments upon my return Friday after being gone all week.... ...In the Joe Kennnedy and the shoeshine boy's stock tip analogy... I was eating at the Oklahoma City Long John Silvers and was discussing the market with my partner in crime for this trip when unsolicited, some stranger came over and said to buy a list of alternative power stocks. Needless to say, I won't be touching any of those for a while and joked to my friend I should probably call the broker and short them all site unseen. -ggggg- =================== Regarding Greenspan's speech, after that post, I found his actual speech and posted it with better comments than the one you posted in which I was working from memory. I don't want to have to reformat the bold face and italics all over again so it is best viewed here. marketswing.com ============================ COT report didn't show enough of a change to be worth while. SPX shorts decreased only very slightly as did NDX shorts but DOW shorts increased slightly. It does show thought that they weren't covering as much as I had hoped last week so the rally was basically the amatuers and Funds, not the commercial pros. ========================= Before I left last week, I made a mistake on our fund sheet. Don posted he was opening a short and I entered that he closed a short instead. I will be correcting this later today. Just wanted to mention it here so no one thinks we are cheating. His post clearly stated he was opening and I just read it too fast and did so wrong as I was rushed trying to pack and do last minute updates to the site. ====================================== I stated in my earlier post on our site that the DOW and NYSE were at dangerous sell trigger levels. I was mistaken. All indexes are still within their trading range boundaries so no major sell signals are evident at this time on our indicator. Pullbacks should be of normal size in the immediate future. This indicator is different than the one on my charts. I still have a sell on my regular charts. ==================================== Still haven't read all the posts so it may have already been mentioned but major news I am watching for this week.... Indonesia having major political problems. Not sure how much we will care though. MSFT appeal ruling should be coming out in the next week. If they win and the Bush admin backs off, MSFT could bounce strongly( despite almost every state waiting in line to litigate also)and since MSFT is about 11% of the NDX, it could move that index up as well as help the DOW a bit. US and Britain were considering easing sanctions on Iraq but as usual, Saddam can't keep his mouth shut and is now threatening to cut off exports of oil if we don't ease sanctions now. Since the US doesn't like to be black mailed, it wouldn't surprise me if we decide to delay easing. This will then put the ball in Iraq's court and if they do cut off Oil exports, then oil prices could push over 30 a barrel once again. ========================= From: John Pitera Friday, May 25, 2001 11:05 PM Respond to of 3927 Hi Terry, yes the CRB did have a big down day, Crude has been weak the past few days and we saw selling in the entire energy complex. The elliot wave pattern on the daily chart has looked impulsive this year as we have headed lower during the first part of the year and it has looked corrective on the 7 week rally during April and May. So much of the action is predicated on this very strong US Dollar, which so many commodities are priced in. You have to go back to 1986 to see the USD Index trading at this high a level, of course the US dollar was coming down from It's massive bull market Peak of 1985 when it topped at 3.47 Dem and something like 200 Yen. The currency, bond and commodity markets are giving different projections of what the future of inflation, economic growth and what the FED's course of action will be. the 10 year note looks ready to head lower in price over the next 2 weeks, The next month will be interesting. =========================== After being out of town all week, I still am not caught up but initial impressions are that the DOW and NYSE are topping out but the Techs may have one last push up left. ADX shows a bit more room upwards though it is at the 50 range where reversals can also happen albeit more rarely. Everything is still telling me we are only in wave 4 and we still have a wave 5 down to go. Talking briefly with Don when I got home last night, he thinks we might make it as late as July before we drop hard and I show nothing that says we are about to crash down yet so he may be right however I do have weekly sell signals on most DOW stocks and other non techs. My main concern is the upcoming warnings season subjectively. How much bad news is priced in and how will the reaction be if news is worse than expected? Numbers have been revised down to pretty low levels that everyone hopes they can beat but I have to wonder if everyone expects them to easily beat this lowered guidance and if/when a few come in even worse, will that be the spark? Don seems to feel that we may survive this warning and earnings season but that the next one in which everyone expects the end of year turnaround to begin may be the one that lets everyone down. Technically, the yellow line has held thus far on the NDX/QQQ as have many of the more important resistance levels in individual stocks. marketswing.com Only the cream of the crop like SEBL, QLGC, SFA etc have made higher highs with most others failing to pop above resistance and many weaker ones like GLW threatening to make lower lows. The SOX remains the strength area for some unknown reason despite still horrible book to bill ratios and new lows in DRAM prices. Denial is strong here but the range is an easy trading range thus far in stuff like MU, AMAT etc. Still all in all, the NDX has only made it to the 25% retrace level and I would expect it to make it to at least the 38% fib level thus I think 2600 is still do-able. I currently hold QQQ LEAP calls hedged with short June calls. Since I am expecting a recovery later this week, I will likely cover the short calls on any long signal and hold straight long in tech though I may decide to ride it out to be safe. A lot depends on internals and how I view things as I get settled back in. I am short some DOW components however and will ride those a while. Good Luck, Lee