Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (8077)	5/28/2001 11:55:27 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Update with many charts: geocities.com This update is more of a general update, although Elliott counts are provided for NYSE Composite/S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite. Issues and indices discussed are AXP, BA, $BKX, C, $CEC, $COMPX, CSCO, $DRG, EMC, GE, JNPR, MRK, MSFT, $NDX, $NYA, SEBL, $SOX, $SPX, and WMT. This is a draft. If I get time, I want to update it in the morning for a few more Elliott counts. If you pick up any mistakes, let me know and I can fix them as well. Good luck to all this week. Cheers.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (8077)	6/1/2001 6:03:54 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Sorry I haven't been posting more but keeping our site going and doing summer chores is keeping me busy. First impression was that today was pretty sad in that we couldn't hold most of today's gains but a grave stone doji type candle on a bottom can be bullish. Not sure if the shadow will be large enough to qualify though. I was fully expecting us to at least fill yesterday's gap down around 1900 but the gap proved to be too much resistance and we couldn't even enter it. May just be the big money wanting to see tomorrow's economic numbers before committing. The usual suspects were the strongest with BRCD, QLGC etc posting nice gains. MU support held so far and the semis tried to make a bounce. In the conspiracy section, I have to mention my reading on the XP release. Over 500 bucks for software that doesn't sound like it does a whole lot other than save documents that you forgot to save so you don't lose stuff as easy and that will enable you to build your own portfolios and then get refreshable stock quotes. However I also read that it is a memory hog and requires AT LEAST 128 Meg of RAM. If J6P decides he doesn't want to get left behind or an office wants to upgrade, how many machines out there other than us traders have that much RAM on board? XP could trigger a bounce in Semi Sales. I will be watching closely to see how sales of it go as things ramp up. A side play of the XP release may be in SDRAM sales for upgrades. BWDIK I have a few daily buy signals but not many and I have Weekly sells almost across the board. As Don said in his update, the inverted hammer/gravestone doji formation was imperfect so it is a toss up. We'll have to see how the numbers look tomorrow morning before the open to give the edge. Remember that the 5th wave down is getting closer and closer so I think MrsWolf is looking at this right in looking to short the bounce rather than trying to scalp too much on the bounce up. GLOBEX triggers are neutral and Futures are down on the warnings so far but the NVLS news is helping a bit there so AMAT, NVLS, KLIC and KLAC may give some limited support. FA wise I don't believe it but that is longer term. This has been discussed in the past so I won't harp on it but most semis have cut cap ex spending except for INTC and they have already burned through 1/2 to 2/3 their yearly cap ex budget so the semi equips should be seeing a slow down in orders soon. Still as Dennis has said, the AMAT buy under 50 thus far has proved to work. I want to stress the weekly charts look horrible unless we bounce hard tomorrow. NAPM is expected to come in at 43.5 to 43.7, a slight improvement over the previous month but anything under 50 is contraction. Hourly earnings suposed to be up .3% and non farm payrolls are expected to drop 90K for a unemployment rate of 4.6 Heinz has Bradley turns on June 4th and June 18th. ========================= From: bcrafty Ed Downs give the naz the "kiss of death" In tonight's summary, Ed Downs at signalwatch.com says "The NASDAQ has the kiss of death written all over it. We have a long lower trendline which has been broken, and a consolidation beneath it. We need to break 2140 tomorrow to keep this thing from going into a deep retracement back to absolute lows." For the entire summary and his view on the DOW: signalwatch.com ============================== Reading across SI JNPR becoming a favorite short target based on money flow mostly. ======== Broadcom (BRCM) 34.72 +1.63: SG Cowen in their Tech Radar reports that recent channel checks for Motorola (MOT) lead firm to believe that the company has significantly reduced component order rates for cable headed equipment; additionally says despite rumors, they do not believe that there has been a pick up in the build rate and component order rates out of MOT; this does not bode well for BRCM which derives 20-25% of its revenues from MOT ============================== from briefing ... The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Ad index fell to 65 in April from an upwardly revised 67 in March. The level compares to an 89 level a year ago and 76 in January. The recent plunge is reminiscent of the recession plunge of a decade ago as the index stood at 85 at the start of the recession in July 1990 and dropped to 63 just 9 months later at the end of the recession. ---- From: John Pitera Thursday, May 31, 2001 2:50 PM good point, this is also very interesting from Briefing.... Despite the firmer tone in US stock futures this morning, we cannot help but ignore the flurry of negative sentiment supporting our concerns that the reflation rally has already compromised equity valuations. One dynamic that has particularly caught our attention has been a rehashing of the concerns that initially sent the markets into a tailspin. A recent Morgan Stanley Dean Witter survey of chief investment officers (CIOs) revealed that more CIOs plan to spend less or more slowly this year. Of interest, the number of CIOs highlighting requests from senior management to either reduce the size of deals or cut back and in some cases actually lower spending, surged to 50% in May from 40% in April and 33% in March. The continued sluggishness of capital spending is not particularly surprising however, as excess capacity remains a major problem. Such thoughts are supported by a recent Merrill Lynch survey which noted that inventories for DRAM makers and distributors in Taiwan have risen to 4-6 week from 3-4 weeks. Of course capacity is by no means exclusive to the chip sector, as MSDW's expectations for a deterioration in the optical components industry are somewhat a function of the massive overhang at Nortel, not surprising when considering that inventories actually rose in Q1. Such overhangs are expected to exacerbate vendor pricing pressures going forward, supporting our longstanding concerns surrounding the disinflationary implications of the slowdown. While the Fed has been fairly direct in its efforts to protect corporate profits, these dynamics provide more credibility for a pushing on a string mentality that could force Greenspan and company to the sidelines. Of course, this is where we would come back to our expectations for a more bullish flattening of the yield curve Good Luck, Lee