To: Chris who wrote (8079 ) 5/27/2001 11:19:45 AM From: Stephen Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52237 I didn't see this - sorry if its a repeat ... Citigroup's Rubin Skeptical Of US Econ Recovery In Q4 Updated: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 09:57 PM ET Email this article to a friend! Printer-friendly version NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The prevailing view among many economic forecasters that U.S. economic growth will start to rebound in the fourth quarter should be viewed with some skepticism, said Robert Rubin, director and chairman of the executive committee of Citigroup and former U.S. treasury secretary. Speaking here Tuesday evening to the American-India Foundation, Rubin cited an expectation among many economists that "in the fourth quarter the U.S. will be back on a healthy track, but there's a reasonable chance these difficulties will be longer than we would wish." Rubin cited recurrent account deficit, the low personal savings rate and high levels of consumer and corporate debt as some of the factors creating imbalances in the U.S. economy. Rubin also talked about planned tax cuts and said that these "create serious risk ... greater than a 50-50 probability of budget deficit" in the coming years. He didn't give a specific timeframe for the threat of deficits but noted that projections made over a 10-year period can be notoriously unreliable. However, "the long run potential of the U.S. economy is very strong" even if, in the near term, there are "certainly real risks," Rubin said. Among the other "excesses" that continue to trouble the economy are the stock market, which "has been at levels that were absurdly high," and a previous buildup of business investments. In his remarks, entitled "Perspectives On The Global Economy," Rubin emphasized how the current uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook in turn creates uncertainty in the world economy. Aside from the effect on emerging markets, he chose to emphasize in particular the situations in Japan. That country is facing "probably the most difficult scenario it has faced in the last 10 years." He estimated that "it will be many years before (Japan) get back to robust, demand-led growth." -Jon Parry; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2096quicken.excite.com Have a great weekend everyone Stephen