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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Wang who wrote (16674)	5/27/2001 11:25:48 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Richard, you'd better test your assumptions about the BTB bottom and its coincidence with the semi stocks bottom. I discussed this earlier on this thread. When the cycle is shallow, the stocks bottom before the BTB (just a little), like in 1996 (BTB bottoms around .70), when the cycle is severe (like the .57 BTB in 1998) the stocks bottom after the BTB. This time the BTB is horrendous, thus historical precedents would indicate you may be erring. Zeev

To: Richard Wang who wrote (16674)	5/27/2001 11:45:27 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Richard, furthermore, a temporary two months uptrend is quite typical of bear market rallies, we had that last year from late May to July, than a relapse and the final distribution early in September. Note that my current scenario reflects almost a duplication of that scenario, and the rise from the bottom here is very similar (40% to 50%) as it was last year. The point you may be missing, I believe, is in "valuations", the last two times the BTB in semi bottomed, AMAT was selling at a PS ratio of 2 not 4 or higher as it is now. Zeev