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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Wang who wrote (16680)	5/27/2001 3:55:10 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30051

I believe that Larry's model does not turn bearish again unless we hit a new low on the Naz (Larry chime in with a correction if I am wrong). For me this is too much of a run down (30% from the recent top). Thus I am adding to my technical indicators few fundamental elements, trying to understand the best I can what kind of recovery we get and how fast that recovery might be. Unlike prior cyclical declines in the semis, which were pretty much within a general major bull market, this decline was within a general bear market, one, which I am not sure is over. Thus until the Naz reaches a four months new recovery high (preferably a 6 month recovery high), I still view the rallies as bear market rallies. I am all for getting in on the trend, and have participated in these counter trends rallies when offered (in early in January, in early in April, out around the 20th and back in for just few days some 10 days ago.) Right now, this initial decline could be as you and Larry indicate, just a consolidation of an uptrend, or it could be a major redistribution top of a bear market rally (like the July, early September period last year). How do you differentiate between these two? I have taken the position that it is the latter (and I would think that Larry would agree with me if the 2095, or at least 2057 levels be breached), Larry and you are taking the opposing point of view. That is indeed what makes a market. (g). Zeev