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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (16687)	5/27/2001 5:02:29 PM
From: Richard Wang	Respond to of 30051

Larry, When everybody is bullish, the market goes down. ;) Richard

To: TREND1 who wrote (16687)	5/27/2001 5:08:23 PM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 30051

Percent gains since April 4, 2001 Low SYMBOL %Gain DIGL 277 EMLX 257 RFMD 241 QLGC 229 EXTR 182 BRCD 177 CREE 169 STOR 162 PLCM 158 SONS 155 CRUS 150 FLEX 140 ONIS 133 CLS 131 NTAP 125 ISIL 120 FEIC 116 TQNT 107 ANAD 104 FCEL 104 AMCC 102 VTSS 100 PMCS 99 PWER 94 IDTI 93 CS 92 IRF 90 BRCM 88 JBL 86 NEWP 84 JNPR 82 SANM 78 KLAC 78 AFCI 77 CIEN 75 CY 75 BLDP 72 NVDA 70 TER 69 CSCO 67 SFA 66 JDSU 63 MXIM 62 NVLS 61 SAWS 59 ADI 59 AMD 58 QCOM 58 LRCX 57 LSCC 53 XLNX 52 SLR 51 NOK 48 AMAT 47 qqq 46 LXK 45 LSI 45 AMKR 44 VSH 42 CMOS 41 CMVT 41 TXN 40 Nasdaq Index 39 ALTR 38 CTLM 38 A 36 NSM 34 ASML 31 INTC 30 STM 29 TSM 26 SBL 25 SMTC 24 Value Line 23 AWRE 21 MU 21 Wilshire 19 GSPN 18 MOT 17 GLW 16 NT 15 MCHP 14 TLAB 11 ALA 3 TMTA -12 RMBS -24

To: TREND1 who wrote (16687)	5/27/2001 5:44:08 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Larry, take your number 1 together with number 4, are they not contradictory? We never had a bear market in the arithmetic Value line, and the large caps (Dow) never saw a real bear market either. If you look at what I believe is a parallel historical precedent, the period from 1966 to 1982, you will see that the nifty "50" of that time, took their sweet time to fall, they waited until 1979 or so for a real fall, and only when every one gave in (in August 1982), we set a bottom. At that time, I counted a string of 7 trading days, when the NYSE had not a single new high, now, that is the depth of a bear, the S&P's PE was at around 7, that is what I call "uncommon values". Mind you, in that period of 1966 to 1982, you could make a lot of money by staying out of the declines and be in just 50% of the advances, exactly the tactic I am trying to follow here. Zeev