To: baystock who wrote (70508 ) 5/29/2001 2:15:48 AM From: baystock Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116759 <"It's worth remembering that the last two times it's rallied, gold gave up most or all of its gains within four to eight weeks," Mr. Reade says. > May 29, 2001 Gold Prices Near Highs, Causing Bewilderment By MICHAEL R. SESIT Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL LONDON -- When British soldiers surrendered to American colonials following the Battle of Yorktown in 1781, they marched to the tune of "The World Turned Upside Down." Contrast the feeble state of the U.S. economy and not-so-healthy state of the European economy with the recent soaring price of gold and galloping U.S. and European bond yields, and you would think maybe it is time to dust off the old tune and play it again. That is because gold prices and bondyields usually don't rise when economies slow. Gold prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division soared to 14-month highs last week, near $290 an ounce. But on Friday, gold prices retreated as speculative funds sold some of the contracts they bought in that rally. The June future fell $1.20 to $278.20 a troy ounce. "Open interest is still up, so the funds are not completely out of their [long] positions," one bullion dealer said. Many analysts say the gold and bond markets are out of whack. Consider the following: U.S. productivity fell in this year's first three months. Growth in U.S. gross domestic product -- the value of all goods and services produced -- for the first quarter was revised downward on Friday. U.S. corporate investment "is dead in the water and will remain so for some time," money managers Bridgewater Associates told clients late last week. As for the other side of the Atlantic, Germany and France last week reported sharp declines in first-quarter growth. Now for the seemingly incongruous. While the global economy looks as if it is on the decline, the following occurred: In less than two months, the price of gold catapulted 17% to the highs hit last week; gold-mining stocks went on a tear; and commodity-based currencies -- those of Australia, New Zealand, Mexico and South Africa -- climbed. So what gives? "The market is taking out insurance; it's telling [Federal Reserve Chairman Alan] Greenspan, 'OK, you can cut rates, but we're taking out insurance against a weaker dollar and higher U.S. inflation,' " says Christopher Dunn, who owns "The Good Trader" Web site. "It's a classic hedge against worsening U.S. inflation fears." John Butler, chief market strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, says the inflation expectations are overblown. He says the prophets of doom are failing to understand that, given the structural changes to the global economy in recent years, energy-price shocks tend to damp demand and slow growth rather than push prices higher. "This isn't an environment in which markets should expect inflation to pick up," Mr. Butler says. "Quite the opposite." Similarly, John Reade, UBS Warburg's precious-metals analyst, is "a little cynical" about the argument that gold's recent price rise augurs higher inflation. He notes that the Philadelphia Fed's quarterly survey has shown no pickup in inflation fears and that his firm's leading inflation indicator peaked during the first quarter of 2000 and has declined in almost every month since. Still believe in gold? "It's worth remembering that the last two times it's rallied, gold gave up most or all of its gains within four to eight weeks," Mr. Reade says. Meanwhile, U.S. financial markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day. In commodity trading Friday: COTTON: Cotton bulls went into mourning once again as they watched prices at the New York Cotton Exchange reach their lowest level since September 1986. The release of the annualized domestic-cotton consumption figure for April by the National Cotton Council was viewed as the main catalyst behind the plunge. After falling to its fresh multiyear low of 40.30 cents a pound, the leading July contract settled at 40.55 cents a pound, off 1.91 cents. "It's amazing how bearish is the information that continues to come out," said Alan Feild, a cotton broker with STA Trading Services, a brokerage firm in Memphis, Tenn. "Right now, things don't look good and I really don't foresee a big turnaround in the market, particularly not in July," he said. COFFEE: Arabica coffee prices fell on the Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange division of the New York Board of Trade as speculators exited, selling contracts they previously purchased. The July contract fell 2.90 cents to 59.90 cents a pound. -- Enza Tedesco