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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (37332)	5/28/2001 4:55:57 PM
From: RR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Hey Glacier Dude! Thanks comments. Super. Great points. I can give you an answer to your points as it reminds me of a time I was at a Board meeting. I was arguing and debating a resolution that had international implications. The U.S. position was sucking wind. We were losing, didn't have enough votes around the table and I knew it. I got up and walked around the room while talking, looking at every person in the eye while making an impassioned argument that we didn't have to do what those outside the U.S. were doing. We didn't have to conform to their policy. I got a bit torked at the line of discussion and finally said in stern words, "We are Americans, and that ought to count for something." And that's the answer. We get to the goal line. We achieve. In war, we all pull together. We win. We are Americans. And with that, the sun just burst out of the clouds. Bright. The little rain cloud has moved on. Take care, Scott. Thanks to your Dad as well, my Friend, for helping assure that I can lay out here in this hammock, in my own backyard, on my land, in freedom. RR

To: Mannie who wrote (37332)	5/28/2001 7:10:48 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

from Levy Institute on Likelihood of Deepening Recession RECESSION TO DEEPEN IN SECOND HALF Quick Recovery Arguments Flawed Mount Kisco, NY May 29, 2001 - By late summer, there will be no question that the United States is in a deep recession, states the current issue of The Levy Institute Forecast and Macroeconomic Profits Analysis. "The global economy will be in its own, snowballing recession." The Fed’s aggressive rate cutting has improved profits forecast for the balance of 2001 somewhat, although it is still dismal, according to the Levy Institute Forecasting Center, which publishes the monthly report. But rate cuts by themselves cannot halt the profits decline. Rate cuts are helping to relieve financial stress, bolster the stock market, and promote investor optimism, yet the direct impact of falling short-term interest rates on the profit sources is modest, especially with Treasury bond yields at six-month highs. Rebutting popular arguments for a prompt recovery, the Levy Institute Forecasting Center maintains that the rising prices of gold, lumber and other commodities do not signal an upturn. Gold is not a reliable indicator of recession bottoms nor inflation, and lumber prices are rising primarily because of a temporary supply aberration. The picture for other commodities is mixed. Housing construction has been strong, but it has little room to rise. Expenditures on residential construction are likely to peak this quarter. Furthermore, observers who point to the stock market forecasting an upturn in earnings are mistaken, the publication asserts. The market may bottom long before profits begin a sustained recovery. "Shockingly disappointing profits, financial stress, a rapidly shrinking federal surplus, and other bad news make a renewed bear market a serious possibility," notes David A. Levy, director of the Levy Institute Forecasting Center. "The reversing of the stock market wealth effect has so far been slower and more gradual than we thought most likely. Moreover, although we forecast rapid Fed easing, it has been even faster than we expected. Furthermore, the upcoming fiscal stimulus from tax changes may be greater and earlier than we expected. In spite of all these positive surprises, the economic and financial problems are growing and will snowball in coming months. The downside potential for the economy remains formidable," the publication states. ### jackass notes: any continuation of this stalling Naz run will present almost the perfect shorting scenario - steady flow of warnings (get ready in about 10 days) - steady comments about hope for 2ndHalf Recovery (wishful thinking and hope can fool investors for only so long) - chips b2b might well remain flat for another month (moron WallSt guys say "cannot get worse".. sure it can) - continued pain for webless wires (or is it wireless webs?) - housing begins to slow and recognize reality (Mortgage Bankers Association revealed that mortgage applications plunged by 15% in the last week) - layoffs show NO sign of abating (steady unemplmt appls over 400k/wk is a sure sign of imminent recession) - Dow Boys uttering "oops" as it nears highs while recession is around the corner (more money than sense on WallSt as recession hits) - repeated cry of "worst is here" becomes like crying wolf and gradually loses credibility big buying opportunity shaping up late in June the key is chipstocks while chipequips are doing ok still, chips are in the toilet for a while longer watch AMAT and NVLS do a slow decline here, foretelling chip pain continuing not forever, but certainly chips not ready for quick rebound just think hard about "b2b at 0.42" it wont get much better until later this summer imo oooops, jim