By: skitrade $$$$
Reply To: None
Monday, 28 May 2001 at 11:57 PM EDT
Post # of 9401
FAIRLY COMPLETE DD OF THIS SITUATION:
This is all of the information that I was able to gather over the weekend. Thanks for everyone who helped to locate it.
First, let us understand what rolling blackouts are:
Rolling Blackouts
When California's power supply dips, the California Independent System Operator (Cal-ISO), who manages the state's power grid,
notifies the California utilities that there must be a load reduction on the statewide power system. The individual utilities than determine
how the load reduction will be accomplished. Usually, it's done by blacking out certain blocks in their area for hours at a time. California
ISO is an independent agency charged with managing the flow of electricity along the long-distance, high-voltage power lines that make
up the bulk of California's transmissions systems. It also has the task of safeguarding the reliable delivery of electricity. The Cal-ISO
does not, as some reports have stated, order black outs. Only local electric suppliers have the ability to do that. Rolling blackouts are
typically used only in severe cases, and are designed to prevent a complete collapse of the state's power system. It signals that the
state's operating reserves have fallen below 1.5 percent. Here's how California's rolling blackouts work:
The state is divided into large blocks by the various utility companies. For example, PG&E divides their service area into a number of
blocks.
When an energy crisis reaches a Stage 3 emergency, California ISO notifies local electric suppliers that there will be a load reduction on
the statewide system. These local suppliers than implement a system of rotating power outages.
These outages proceed in numerical order, beginning with block number one. If the crisis continues, number two will be the next block
affected by the rolling blackouts. PG&E customers can find their block number on their service bill.
Hospitals, police stations, fire departments and some residents located near these emergency agencies are unaffected by the rolling
blackouts.
Next, lets address the statements that have been issued by the governing and regulatory bodies of the State of California:
(COMTEX) B: Davis Orders Warnings of Blackouts
B: Davis Orders Warnings of Blackouts
SACRAMENTO, Calif., May 24, 2001 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Californians will
soon know at least a day in advance if power is likely to go out where they live
or work, Gov. Gray Davis said Thursday.
The executive order Davis said he will issue in the next few days will require
power grid managers to issue a warning 48 hours before they believe blackouts
are likely. The Independent System Operator, keeper of the state's power grid,
will be required to give a 24-hour update, including naming which specific
neighborhoods will be hit. A final warning will be issued an hour before the
blackouts.
"If blackouts are going to occur, there's no reason to keep the public in the
dark," Davis said. "We've had as little as two minutes notice before blackouts.
Now, a two-minute warning may work for the National Football League, but it
won't work for California consumers and businesses in this state."
Beginning May 30, the ISO plans to issue warnings similar to weather advisories
24 hours before expected blackouts.
Until now, the ISO has refused to give more than a few minutes' warning, saying
it did not want to alarm people. The utilities have resisted giving warnings,
saying they did not want to tip off burglars and other criminals.
Southern California Edison will comply with the governor's request, said Brian
Bennett, vice president of external affairs. The utility already notifies law
enforcement and city officials when blackouts are possible, but will now also
tell media and the public, he said.
"The ISO telling us rolling blackouts are possible 48 hours in advance is
sketchy, but not unreliable," said Bennett. "The danger is, we do not want the
public to become complacent when the alert is announced, but blackouts don't
happen."
Californians have seen six days of rolling blackouts this year and have been
warned to expect more as electricity demand peaks in the summer. The sudden
nature of previous rolling blackouts was a major consumer complaint.
Because of the lack of notice, earlier rolling blackouts led to pileups at
intersections suddenly left without stoplights, trapped people in elevators, and
caused business losses by bringing production lines to a halt.
The advance warning will give law enforcement time to get to neighborhoods to
direct traffic or increase patrols, Davis said.
"There may be days that despite our best efforts the dynamic nature of the
California grid outpaces our efforts at communications," said Michael Kahn,
chairman of the ISO board of governors. "We will do our best to minimize those
days and we will always strive to keep the power on in California."
howstuffworks.com
SACRAMENTO--In a significant policy change aimed at minimizing business and consumer disruptions, Gov. Gray Davis ordered state
officials Thursday to enact a three-tier blackout warning system.
Forecasts of blackouts will be issued 48 hours beforehand, Davis said. General areas will be identified in warnings issued 24 hours
before likely outages. Precise locations will be announced an hour before the power is cut, he said.
Business executives, police and consumers have complained that the current warning system--in which blackouts can come with less
than 10 minutes' warning--does not give them sufficient time to save information on computers, shut down assembly lines, safeguard
traffic intersections and otherwise prevent financial loss and mayhem when the power goes out.
In the past, state grid operators only gave short notice because they often found enough power at the last minute to avert blackouts.
They said they did not want to repeatedly alarm people. Utility officials have said they feared that advance warning would leave
neighborhoods vulnerable to looters and burglars.
But crime has not been a problem during California's six days of blackouts so far this year. And with experts predicting dozens of days of
forced outages this summer, state and utility leaders say Californians are better off prepared.
"If blackouts are going to occur," Davis said, "there is no reason to keep the public in the dark. We all deserve as much advance notice
as possible."
Utility customers will be notified through company Web sites and radio and television announcements. Starting with June utility bills,
Southern California Edison customers will be given "block" numbers that allow them to learn through the Edison Web site,
www.sce.com, if they are scheduled for rotating blackouts on days of short supply.
Under the governor's order, Edison spokesman Brian Bennett said, consumers can expect 24-hour warnings about general
areas--Santa Monica or Santa Ana, for example--that might be targeted for hourlong blackouts.
At 60 minutes before a blackout is triggered, Bennett said, the warnings delivered through radio, television and the Internet will get much
more precise. "For example," he said, "One hour before, we'll say Main Street in Santa Monica . . . will be affected."
Leaders of the agency responsible for deciding when blackouts must be triggered said Thursday they intend to launch the governor's
order by June 15. And if Californians redouble their conservation efforts when they hear of blackout warnings, they said, the governor's
order will ultimately help the state avoid blackouts.
"I think we're going to save power, potentially lives; we're going to help save jobs and California's economy," said Carl Guardino, a
member of the board that oversees the California Independent System Operator, which manages 75% of the state's transmission
system.
Davis announced his order at a news conference attended by law enforcement officials, including Los Angeles County Sheriff Lee Baca,
who said he intends to unveil a more detailed plan for the county today.
For some, the decision to give warning was an acknowledgment that the state is failing to solve the energy crisis.
"It obviously says we're surrendering to the electricity crisis," said Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Northridge. "Here we've arrived in the 21st
century, with all the electronics, and we don't have the power to run them."
Utility spokesmen lauded the plan, but said that much of the responsibility rests with Cal-ISO, which is the only entity that has the ability
to track supplies.
"If the ISO only gives us 60-minutes warning, our customers will get something less than 60-minutes notice," said John Nelson,
spokesman for Pacific Gas & Electric.
As it works now, Cal-ISO informs utilities of pending blackouts. The utility, in turn, informs county offices of emergency services. Using
computerized calling, e-mail and manual dialing, the utilities also inform law enforcement, major industrial users, people on life support
and other consumers for whom electricity is vital, Nelson said.
Californians at large are expected to learn of the warnings through the media and the Cal-ISO Web site, www.caiso.com.
Also on Thursday, Davis met with officials of California's publicly owned utility districts and came away, he said, with promises that they
would sell excess power to the state at prices significantly lower than on the spot market.
howstuffworks.com
State to Issue Warnings of Power Outages
Electricity: Cal-ISO says it will try to give residents and businesses 24-hour notice of probable blackouts.
By MIGUEL BUSTILLO and NANCY VOGEL, Times Staff Writers
Californians will hear an expanded forecast on their morning commutes this summer, courtesy of the energy crisis: "The 405 Freeway is
jammed, there's a slim chance of showers, and oh, by the way, there's a 50% likelihood of blackouts."
By the end of this month, the California Independent System Operator, the agency that manages the state's power grid, expects to issue
24-hour forecasts generally detailing when and where blackouts can be expected.
It is also piecing together a high-tech system to give businesses, government officials and the public at least a half-hour notice of a
probable blackout in their area.
Just how those notices will be issued remains somewhat up in the air, but Cal-ISO is talking with private companies capable of notifying
more than 10,000 customers a minute via fax and phone, and millions a minute via wireless communications such as pagers.
Cal-ISO assembled the plan after complaints from businesses, particularly those in the Silicon Valley, that last-minute blackouts were
costing California millions. The plan also responds to growing political pressure for the public to be kept informed of the barrage of
outages that is expected to darken the state this summer because of insufficient supplies of electricity.
If Californians' electricity use pattern is similar to last year's, Cal-ISO has projected, the state could suffer 34 days of blackouts, making
increased notification crucial.
With a shortage of hydroelectric power imports from the drought-stricken Pacific Northwest, and no new power plants coming online
until July, the agency calculates that there will be a supply-demand gap in June of 3,700 megawatts--enough power to supply 2.8 million
homes. A national utility industry group painted a more dire scenario last week when it predicted that California will experience up to 260
hours of blackouts this summer.
"The weather report and traffic report are good analogies; people know they are not 100% accurate, but if [a blackout] really means a lot
to them, they will check in," said Mike Florio of the Utility Reform Network, who serves on the Cal-ISO board.
Details remain sketchy, and the programs may be altered when the board meets Thursday. But a Web page called "Today's Outlook" on
the agency's Internet site, www.caiso.com, will be created to illustrate, hour by hour, how much electricity is available during a 24-hour
period and whether there is a predicted surplus or shortfall.
Media outreach will be expanded to provide news bulletins on electricity conditions a day in advance. They will not only include demand
projections and the effects of weather, but they also will define the level of emergency that is expected.
A "power watch" will be sounded during stage 1 and stage 2 shortages, and a more serious "power warning" if there is a 50-50 chance
of a stage 3, which often results in blackouts. (Stage 1 emergencies occur when power reserves drop below 7%, stage 2 5% and stage
3 1.5%.)
Most important, Cal-ISO is pledging to provide 30-minute notice of probable blackouts to people in the areas served by Pacific Gas &
Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric, among others. In addition to giving the warnings on the Internet and
through the mass media, Cal-ISO will sound alarms to select e-mail addresses and pager numbers on "blast lists," or massive
computer databases that it will assemble.
"The technology is there. This is a war California is in, and we should be deploying high-tech solutions," said Carl Guardino of the Silicon
Valley Manufacturing Group, the Cal-ISO board member who had been pushing hardest for better notification. "Every time California
goes black, the economy sees red."
Guardino said that businesses and public agencies are now receiving just two- to six-minute warnings before blackouts, not nearly
enough to react.
"A two-minute warning may be sufficient in a football game, but it is insufficient to protect California businesses and the public," he said.
Though businesses and government agencies are expected to make the most of the warnings, Florio said residents also will benefit.
"It will be more of a challenge to get the information to individual homeowners, but if someone works at home, and sets it up to get an
e-mail notice, they can take advantage," he said.
In other energy news Monday, the woman in charge of paying California's power bills warned that a $13.4-billion bond issue to cover
electricity purchases will be insufficient and that the state will have to borrow $4 billion more before it runs out of cash in February.
Calling a news conference in the capital, state Controller Kathleen Connell questioned the key assumptions underpinning Gov. Gray
Davis' financial plan for overcoming the energy crisis. The plan assumes the $13.4 billion in bond sales will repay state coffers for
electricity purchases and cover future power buys for the next two years.
Connell's opinion is notable because, as the state's chief check writer, the independently elected Democrat is privy to information about
the prices the state is paying for electricity bought on the spot market and through long-term contracts--data that Davis has largely kept
secret.
Davis' advisors and Department of Finance officials dispute Connell's warnings.
Now let's review the Memorandum to the ISO Board of Governors:
Memorandum
To: ISO Board of Governors
From: Elena Schmid, Vice President, Corporate and Strategic Development
Stephanie McCorkle, Acting Director of Communications
Ean O'Neill, Operations Support
CC: ISO Board Advisors and ISO Officers
Date: May 17, 2001
Re: ISO Electric Emergency Notification
The results of these vendor discussions can be summarized in a number of common features that would
characterize such a notification system. The main features are:
1. The vendor can obtain the relevant outage signal or other information either passively (e.g., receipt of
notification from the ISO or the utilities) or actively (e.g., by monitoring the ISO or the utility web sites).
2. Customer notification could be delivered by phone, fax, e-mail, or wireless message service (e.g., pager),
depending on the customer’s preference.
3. Notification can be customized in several ways, such as:
__ single notification to a manager of several geographically dispersed facilities, or multiple notification to
different personnel within a single facility;
__ single notification per day when ISO initially declares “probable curtailment” for that day, or repeated
notification on days when ISO makes multiple declarations at different times within the day;
__ frequent updates of ISO system conditions, or formal curtailment declarations only.
4. Large numbers of customers could be notified in a short time – estimates ranges in excess of 10,000 per
minute via fax or phone, up to millions per minute via wireless broadcast.
5. Notification can be location specific, i.e., tied to actual utility outage blocks that would be the next to be
curtailed, but this would require information provided by the utilities.
6. Customers would have individual profiles containing their preferences regarding the above items.
Customers would create and revise their profiles through a web site provided by the vendor. Customer
profiles would be ID/password secured.
Some implementation issues that must be addressed are:
__ Payment for the program: Will the vendor be paid under contract for providing the program (e.g., by the
state, the utilities, or the ISO), or charge end-use customers who subscribe to the system.
__ Required time frame for implementing the system: Vendors already have some capacity to provide this
service, which they suggest could be operational within two weeks or so, but may require more set-up time
if, for example, the desire is to notify millions of customers by fax.
SUMMARY
Given the anticipated conditions of the summer and the potential for a shortfall of generation -- which could result in
involuntary curtailment -- the CAISO realizes the importance of providing as much information as we can to those
who most need it. In recent weeks, we have worked with the Legislature, utilities, business groups, media and
other parties who are interested in better notification in order to work through the challenging issues. While no
single notification tool satisfies everyone's needs, the CAISO has identified a "trigger" for announcing the probability
of interruptions. Additionally, we will be offering a menu of information vehicles to give customers, both residential
& business, more facts to base their decisions on, while enhancing communication between the ISO and pertinent
state agencies. We have committed to upgrading the provision of our information both in terms of timing and
amount of information that will be posted to our website. In terms of a "trigger", we are committing to providing a
30-Minute Advance Notice of Probable Load Interruptions for businesses and others who may be jeopardized by
involuntary load curtailment. As the use of our new tools is tested in the coming weeks, we will evaluate them and
make revisions as necessary.
Looking forward at this problem:
energy.ca.gov
sfgate.com
Californians will have to deal with the possibility of energy alerts and rolling blackouts for the next two years, a state official said today.
"For the next couple of years . . . any day could (bring) difficulty," said Kellan Fluckiger, chief operating officer with the Independent
System Operator, which oversees California's power network.
The state will be particularly vulnerable in the summer, when electricity use is high, said Fluckiger.
"In the summertime, when we are at a high level (of use), I believe we will have a number of situations where we have Stage 3 alerts and
outages," he said.
"During the next two summers, we will have a situation where we will have power watches and emergencies."
During a Stage 3 alert, which happens when power reserves fall below 1.5 percent of available capacity, the ISO can order Pacific Gas
and Electric Co. and other utilities to initiate rolling blackouts.
For the seventh straight day, state officials today declared a Stage 3 power alert -- but blackouts were not expected to be necessary,
Fluckiger said.
Among the reasons for Stage 3 alerts in Northern California, he said, were idle power plants that are getting maintenance.
"We have an extraordinary high number of units that have broken and need repair," he said.
Until more power plants are built in California, the potential for alerts and blackouts is possible, said Fluckiger.
Yesterday, a power glitch in the Pacific Northwest briefly cut off electricity to 50,000 to 70,000 customers in the Central Valley, but
authorities said the failure was not a renewal of California's rolling blackouts.
The customers, served by municipal utilities in Sacramento County and a few surrounding communities, lost power for about 20
minutes, starting at 2:15 p.m., said ISO spokesperson Stephanie McCorkle.
McCorkle said the system operator was forced to throw the switch after an equipment failure at a Bonneville Power Administration
substation in Oregon sent a sudden surge of electricity into a California transmission line.
No PG&E customers were affected, she said. PG&E spokeswoman Maureen Bogues said the system operator issued a blackout order
to the utility yesterday afternoon but withdrew it before it took effect.
Authorities in the affected areas said residents had been calling about the brief blackouts but there were no emergencies.
The Modesto Irrigation District, a public power agency that serves 95,000 customers, had to cut service to about 5,000 ratepayers after
getting a request from PG&E shortly after 2:30 p.m.
"This is the third time we've done this," said district spokeswoman Maree Hawkins. "We did it Wednesday, Thursday and today. But
we're rotating the outages through different areas."
In Modesto, the blackout lasted about 18 minutes. "Before I could get on the radio and warn people about four-way stops at intersections,
it was over," Hawkins said.
Fluckiger called on residents and businesses to conserve more water, because water supplies help power companies in Northern
California create electricity in hydroelectric plants.
"Conservation is clearly critical," he said.
Gov. Gray Davis, meanwhile, is expected to soon name a person to help speed construction of new power plants and shave the state's
long-term energy deficit.
The move is the latest by the Democratic governor to try to combat the state's electricity woes, which have led to the first peacetime
blackouts in California history.
"This would be someone in the governor's office who would reach out to the different agencies involved to get more plants online," said
Steve Maviglio, press secretary to Davis, who did not identify the appointee.
Davis and lawmakers have been attacking the state's energy shortages on several fronts.
The key to a long-range solution is making sure there is enough power to meet California's demand.
Central to that is creating more power plants.
Since March 1998, the California Energy Commission has approved nine power plants.
Of those, five are under construction and are expected to create 2,368 megawatts of new electricity by the end of the year, according to
the commission.
During one of last week's Stage 3 alerts, the state was short of the electricity it needed by about 14,000 megawatts.
California consumes about 164 million megawatt hours a year, according to the ISO.
Northern California is chronically short of energy ranging from 4,000 to 5,500 megawatts every hour of each day, according to the
system operator.
The shorter-term strategy of Davis and lawmakers is to reduce the reliance of utilities on the spot market, where they have been paying
far more for electricity than they can recoup from their customers.
That has driven both PG&E and Southern California Edison $12 billion in debt and raised the specter of bankruptcy.
Last week, Davis signed legislation allowing the state to spend $400 million to buy electricity for the next two weeks.
That stopgap measure would be replaced by another bill, being refined by the Senate Energy, Utilities and Communications committee,
which would allow the state to enter into long-term contracts to buy electricity. Davis hopes lawmakers will send him that bill before the
end of the week.
Davis, who has been criticized for not acting earlier, has now been trying to exercise more personal control over as many aspects of the
state's power crisis as possible.
How many people are we talking about?
sce.com
Southern California Edison is one of the largest
electric utilities in the U.S., and the largest
subsidiary of Edison International.
SCE Company Profile
Generation
Key Links
On an average day, SCE provides power for 11
million individuals, 800 communities and
cities, 5,000 large businesses, and 280,000
small businesses in Central and Southern
California. Delivering that power takes 16 utility
interconnections, 4,900 transmission and
distribution circuits, 365 transmission and
distribution crews, the days and nights of
12,642 employees, and over a century of
experience.
pge.com
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) is a wholly owned
subsidiary of PG&E Corporation and maintains its
headquarters in San Francisco, California. There are 21,500
employees who carry out PG&E’s primary business—the
transmission and delivery of energy. The company provides
natural gas and electric service to approximately 12 million
people in Northern and Central California, or about one in every
20 Americans. Our service area covers 70,000 square miles.
As if this is not enough, it seems as though other states could be facing the same fate:
howstuffworks.com
Not Just a California Problem
California represents about 12 percent of the total U.S. population, with a statewide population of more than 33 million people. It's also
home to a disproportionate number of high-tech companies who soak up more energy than most traditional (low-tech) companies. A
huge amount of electricity has to be generated to meet the state's power demands.
The impact of the crisis in California is already being felt across the western part of the United States. When prices in California rise --
and they have tripled in since November 1999 -- it has an effect on electricity costs of nearby states, because California is buying
electricity from these states. So with California buying more electricity, the amount of electricity available within the state exporting it
decreases. The rapid growth of cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix has also contributed to the mushrooming energy crisis.
If you live on the eastern side of the United States, you may think you'll be spared from this most recent energy crisis on the West Coast.
However, if the situation continues to worsen, the California crisis could be merely the first domino to fall in a nationwide energy crunch.
At least 25 other states have begun efforts to deregulate their electric utilities; and eventually, each could be faced with the same
situation that California finds itself in now. Two states, Nevada and Arkansas, have suspended or are delaying efforts to deregulate their
electric utilities for the time being. In the meantime, they will watch and take notes on how California has dealt with the deregulation issue
and the effects it has spawned.
Breaking News
March 15, 2001
Grim energy outlook -- in New
York
Carol Murphy, executive director of the New York Independent System
Operator, says California-style rolling blackouts might be in New York's
future.
"We're definitely concerned about that in the downstate and New York City
area. If we have a cool summer we could be fine, but if it's a bad summer,
we're really in trouble," she says.
The New York ISO, which oversees the state's bulk pwer grid, released a
report with a grim outlook on New York's energy future unless major
changes are made very soon.
"Power Alert: New York's Energy Crossroads," calls for immediate state
approval early this year of 4,000-5,000 megawatts of new generating
capacity to avoid serious electricity shortages, improve air quality, continue
New York's economic growth, and avert an increase in prices.
William Museler, president and CEO of the ISO said in a prepared statement
that New York is headed toward "a very serious situation" unless it acts
immediately |
