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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Calladine who wrote (47343)	5/29/2001 10:02:11 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 70976

Looking at Gottfried's chart of chip sales vs equipment, it seems that equipment tends to top around 12% of sales and bottom around 5%. In the last bubble, equipment accounted for ~17% (50% higher than previous tops) and at the moment stands around 4.5%. It is possible that since the previous top was so much higher, the bottom will also be deeper and longer (say at around 3.8%). But I am begining to become more bullish and buy should there be a drop to ~40. ST

To: James Calladine who wrote (47343)	5/29/2001 10:03:07 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Boy, what bleak news on this thread since Friday. Can anyone cheer me up today or are we at the abyss(again). Mike

To: James Calladine who wrote (47343)	5/29/2001 2:29:44 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

RE: "...last week's semi equipment book-to-bill ratio makes the expectation of sequential order growth seem more remote..." This is a non-sequitur. A priori, "last week's semi equipment book-to-bill ratio" should not affect expectations of sequential order growth. In fact, in the past, a low btb was an immediate precursor of sequential order growth. I think the current situation might differ from the typical past situation and that order growth will be somewhat "remote", but the btb number isn't the reason. Are there idiots working at Salomon or do they think we are idiots?