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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OX who wrote (3932)	5/29/2001 12:21:11 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi OX, yes we saw much CRB weakness towards the end of last week and as gold continues to head lower, that is negative for the global reinflation thesis as well as the AUD. both Gold and the Global reinflation thesis were hit with a burst of cold water when both Germany and France came out with GDP numbers showing deteriation in their economies last week. Australia had a really big trade deficit, which is surprising. Mer is saying that the latest commitment of Traders data has the largest speculative long position in Gold since Feb 1996. 3.9 ounces is what Mer is said to be saying. the August contract is having trouble holding the 275-276 area. The AUD is probably not going over it's 200 dma this coming month... I am expectin a solid retest of the Euro lows of last fall, and probably new lows for the Euro.

To: OX who wrote (3932)	5/29/2001 12:34:51 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

The QQV and VIX have come down 40% from their high points and Bullish sentiment moving north again, the QQV option volatility index has really come down considerably from the 80's down to the low 50's. I would think it possible that over the next 2-3 years, maybe sooner we'll actually see the QQV volatility number be lower than the VIX. (the QQV tracks the volatility of the NDX Nasdaq 100 index options and the VIX tracks the implied volatility of the OEX options, more specifically the front month puts and call that are near the money.) why would the QQV work it's way lower than the OEX, because the tech stocks would become so out of favor that they would become less volatile and they would not be the area where momentum trading money would go. the VIX made it's high reading on March 22nd the day of the 4.91 TRIN (ARMS Index) reading and the low day on the DJIA and the 10 year note yield low. The QQV made it's high on April 9th. The AAII has the percentage of bullish investors above 60% again. John