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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47352)	5/29/2001 1:09:37 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

WSTS forecast shows 13.5% drop in 2001 chip sales, but recovery in Q3 Expected growth rate for next three years was increased to 15.6% Semiconductor Business News (05/29/01 11:51 a.m. EST) TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Chip revenues are expected to drop 13.5% in 2001 to $176.8 billion compared to $204.4 billion in 2000, based on a new downgraded forecast issued this week by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group. WSTS--like nearly all other industry trade groups and market research firms--cut its forecast after previously predicting strong semiconductor growth for 2001. The prior WSTS forecast, issued last fall, called for a 20.3% growth in chip sales to $250 million in 2001 (see Nov. 9 story). But the global semiconductor trade group chopped its industry consensus outlook following an annual spring forecasting session, which was held in Taiwan in the middle of May. About 70 representatives from 41 chip companies and trade groups attended the WSTS session. The trade group says about 90% of the world's chips are produced by companies participating in its global organization. The new WSTS forecast shows the current downturn coming to an end in the middle of 2001, with sequential growth on a quarterly basis beginning in Q3 for all major markets and product segments. WSTS is now predicting that worldwide chip sales will increase at compound annual growth rate of 15.6% into 2004. In WSTS's last official forecast, issued last fall, the group predicted that chip revenues would grow at a 13.8% rate between 2001 and 2003. In a press release issued on Monday, WSTS said the new consensus forecast shows semiconductor revenues growing 13.9% in 2002 to $201.4 billion from $176.8 billion in 2001.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47352)	5/30/2001 12:31:33 AM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, RE "Let's just say that I do not agree with your assessment" Obviously!! I think it fair to say that neither of us will convince the other, BUT I am amazed at your lack of logic. We agreed in an earlier post that AMAT low of 96 cycle was 1X sales, 98 was 2X, and now we are at 4X. Am I to assume that during the next down cycle you will be telling us all that AMAT is a great bargain when it trades at 8X sales?? Or do even you draw the over valuation line somewhere?? Eric.