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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bill who wrote (2102)	5/30/2001 9:45:44 AM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

The tone of the last 2 posts is definitely a call to wake up, especially for short term traders. Thanks for the info. On the other hand, this should be much less painful than the 1989-1992 real estate debacle, since the vacancies were in a much weaker position going into that cycle and there was much more developmnet activity going on. The Silicon Valley and Northern Virginia bubbles had to burst, but main street should be able to absorb the increase in vacancy and slight rent drops, if any, (compared to 1999 rates). With lower interest rates going into the cycle, we could come out decent in terms of cash flow (FFO). Best, there is relatively little overbuilding, and most buildings going up are preleased more than in 1987. The street has been soaking up hotel REITs like crazy, which says they think the economy will be strengthening in 6 months or so. Maybe they will be right. Health care REITs are the best to own (not considering government interference) as far as steady cash flow is concerned going into a real estate cycle. Of course, many of the tenants are pretty weak financially. So... I agree it's time to lighten up some positions, but I will be backing up the truck if values drop like they did in 1998-1999. Richard