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To: John Madarasz who wrote (8217)5/29/2001 7:50:29 PM
From: Sully-  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Hi John,

I believe I stated in an earlier post here that it was my understanding that some gaps never get filled. In particular, when the fundamentals change significantly a breakaway gap may never get filled. BTW, I am by no means an expert on gaps. As I mentioned earlier, when I first learned about gaps & how some folks incorporate it into their TA, I didn't buy into the theory at all. It was not until I watched gaps get filled time & time again on every gap I monitored, that I became fascinated with them.

RE: the 1998 gaps......... I was not monitoring those gaps. However, these could very well be breakaway gaps from the tech wreck of Oct 98. Look at NTAP's chart from back then.

finance.yahoo.com

NTAP formed a big 'V' bottom. Perhaps NTAP became extremely oversold & when the market recovered, it ran hard off it's bottom to return to it's fundamental value (breakaway gaps).

That is why I believe that not all gaps from this year will be closed.

Regarding NTAP's open gaps @ $15.87, from 4/17, & the one @ $11.8125 from 4/4.......... I just have a hard time believing that they will be filled at this time. I believe the lower gap ($11.8125) is a breakaway gap, similar to what may have occurred with the gaps formed in '98........... the market was extremely oversold when NTAP & THE NAZ rebounded this year too...........

The other gap ($15.87) is somewhat less of a breakaway gap IMO. I only think there is a small chance this gap gets filled. $15.87 is still at a level that NTAP seems to be fundamentally undervalued............. unless NTAP is not going to meet current or near term estimates which seems to be what you might be thinking.

I'm just not currently as bearish on the overall economy nor NTAP to consider that it will fill the $11.8125 gap, let alone fill the '98 gap @ $7.41. I think storage will be among the leaders when the economy does turn. However, if economic conditions are as bad as you suspect, then all bets are off.

All JMHO

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