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Strategies & Market Trends : Winter in the Great White North -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (797)	5/30/2001 1:31:04 AM
From: marcos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8273

Market Summary MARKET Shares issued 0 1899-12-30 close $0 Friday Feb 16 1990 Daily Market Report As promised Friday, what follows are exerpts from John Kaiser's often philosophical discussion about how to pick stocks on the Vancouver stock exchange. These excerpts are part of a much longer discussion that is distributed by the research department of Pacific International Securities. Copies may be obtained by calling Mr Kaiser at (604)-669-2174. Mr Kaiser calls his stock picks longshots. Longshots are speculative companies listed on any of the Vancouver, Toronto and Alberta stock exchanges that are not currently the objects of public speculation, but show strong signs that at some point a wave of publicity will replace low volume and low prices with heavy volume and, hopefully, much higher prices. Some people characterize attempts at picking winners as no better than throwing darts at the stock table page of the newspaper. Using such a random method will, however, include the hundreds of doomed companies that are heavily indebted, have been abandoned by their management, are delinquent with filings, including financials, and lack any sort of fundamental assets or even the promise of acquiring some. Their existence is a fact of life in the high risk business of speculative ventures. Such companies are destined for consolidation, or worse, suspension and eventual delisting. In essence, no one, except perhaps the powerless public shareholder, cares enough to make an effort to breathe life into these stocks. Eliminating these is the first step in narrowing the field of choices. Knowing that someone must have reason to care about a stock's future for it to have any future prospects is to start understanding the longshot list. In the search for longshots, one theme dominates overwhelmingly. Plain and simple, we are looking for stocks that are being groomed for a future market play. Longshots are low-priced and semi-dormant because they are still missing important pieces. When the last piece falls into place, then the public's attention will be fucused on the stock, and active speculation will begin. Meanwhile, longshot players can accumulate cheap stock in the open market and patiently wait for the day when the promoters are ready to tell the world about their company's great future. When everyone else is clamouring to buy your longshot and insisting that it is on its way to the moon you will sell your position to them. Forget about landing on the moon; take your profits somewhere along the way. The life cycle of speculative stocks resembles the stages of a plant: seed, germination, sprouting, growth, blooming, bearing fruit and decay. Some stocks are annuals, others perennials. Many are stuck in one of the stages. Longshots are those that are in the first three stages and show signs they may go on to the next three stages. The five point method helps us find the winning longshots. These five points are the company's background, structure, people, story and capital. Background: Where has the company been? Structure: Will the company go anywhere in the future? People: Who will and can make the company go somewhere? Story: Where will the company go and can it get there? Capital: How will it get there? The background of a company reveals when it was first publicly listed and the corporate changes such as consolidations and name changes it has since undergone. What you find here is a brief description of the company's previous lives, if any, and how the company arrived at its present stage. Each life cycle corresponds to a story, a venture through which the company tried to become a success. The background also indicates who told the story and tried to enact it. A price-volume chart covering the stock's previous lives reveals the distribution, or share ownership turnover, cycles the company has undergone. Look for triangular volume and price patterns, usually occurring roughly at the same time. they indicate how effectively the company's story was told to investors. The low volume, low price sections between the triangles are periods of restructuring. You will find that most longshots are in such a phase. Next Monday, we will present the next part of the longshot philosophy. It will deal with the sections about structure, people, story and capital. (c) Copyright 1990 Canjex Publishing Ltd. (c) Copyright 2001 Canjex Publishing Ltd. canada-stockwatch.com

To: marcos who wrote (797)	5/30/2001 1:50:25 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 8273

Thanks Marcos ! It is important to understand that the entire project financing doesn't have to be paid back before IMN's interest kicks in. Payments on the project debt will simply reduce the amount of free cash flow to be paid out in dividends. I think this is where the analyst erred. Please listen to the webcast of the AGM available on the website. I think I can remember exactly what Ross said. "The owners of the mine (the majors) expect the mine to yield a 15% return on equity. If this works out, their equity which amounts to US$1,000,000,000 will be paid back in four years." Incidentaly Marcos, Have you figured out how long it will be before AUR enjoys the "benefits" of Blancos ? What is the payback period of that mine ? About four years ? This is situation normal for any mine surely. best regards to you !

To: marcos who wrote (797)	5/30/2001 7:59:49 AM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8273

Postscript: You make the point that it will take so long before IMN benefits. Would you please consider this. 1. Antamina presumably will be very profitable from the start. For that 3.3% portion that I call AntaIMNa, who enjoys the early profits ? Not the majors surely, for they are only going to get their money back. THAT's NOT WHAT PROFIT IS !. 2. Isn't it REALLY as if the early profits were accruing to IMN, and IMN were using them to repay its financings, provided by those two majors ? I was musing with Johnny Walker last night. He made a valid and profound point. He said, "When it comes to valueing mines, the market is an ASS". Unfortunately, other things he said have given me a headache.

To: marcos who wrote (797)	6/4/2001 8:18:07 PM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 8273

Antamina Do you remember this remark of yours, Marcos ? >>>the trick is to define just when that payback period will be completed, really dig up the details and sharpen the pencil, At the old Rio Algom website, there is a year-old presentation about Antamina including numerous slides. One of them is headed: FREE CASH FLOW NET OF PROJECT DEBT REPAYMENTS That is the money from which the owners will recover their equity of approximately US$1,000,000,000. (bear in mind that the current price of copper is .75c) All amounts in millions of US Dollars (from eyeballing the chart) ..........Cu .85c........Cu .95c..........Cu $1.05 2002........75............150...............225 2003.......120............200...............300 2004.......125............225...............260 3yr tot....320............575...............785 Clearly, copper would have to average over a dollar if the equity was to be repaid in only four years. However, you can sure see what terrific leverage there is to the price of metals. i wonder if "the coming bull market in commodities" will materialise.