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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (77592)	5/30/2001 8:58:09 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

re: consumer sentiment is improving I drop back below 2000 will smash any amount of tentative improvement. B

To: t2 who wrote (77592)	5/30/2001 4:28:49 PM
From: LKO	Respond to of 99985

The recovery starts 3rd quarter but the profit warning from SUNW is for the 2nd quarter. IMHO, SUNW is no longer the kind of the company that is indicative of business conditions. It is a company facing some serious competition. To me, companies like SUNW and Oracle will almost turn into future Lucents in the coming year or so. They just don't have the big debt on the balance sheet to get all the way there. You are saying as if it is a NEW situation for ORCL and SUNW to face "serious competition". If they were bloated, they will come down, but I do not doubt their capability to react to competition and compete. As for them being like LU except for the lack of debt, it is like me playing basketball like Magic Johnson except for the skill. DEBT KILLS. It is what diverts all that EBITDA into that I in EBITDA and leaves nothing left for the E that they use for P/E. <G> What I am watching for is the outlook from Cisco, MSFT, Intel, IBM, HWP, EMC types. They will indicate whether we are at a bottom as these companies are in good competitive situations (maybe with the exception of EMC---Intel could also warn but with positive outlook for the next quarter). I will give you MSFT as a company with "good competitive situation" (monopolies by definition are). Maybe even CSCO (though they have EXTR, FDRY outdoing them in enterprise space). Maybe even EMC (though they have several companies like NTAP chasing them but not there yet). I question the call that Intel, IBM, and HWP are in good competitive situations. They have AMD, SUNW, Dell, Compaq sniping at their heels. If you peel off the hype, they are in as good or bad a competitive situation as ORCL or SUNW. Just my $0.02 worth.