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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (70714)	5/30/2001 9:50:29 AM
From: Ken Benes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Yes, Yes, it is the unfortunate truth. But, it is not the whole truth. Even more egregious, the producers are ready willing an able to increase production at the slightest hint of an increase in demand. Commodity producers should not be ahead of the production curve, they should be monitoring and managing prices covertly, increasing supply only when the additional metal will receive a higher price. The gold producers do not comprehend this, which is understandable from a mentality that will grab a shovel before reaching for a calculator. The price of gold is doomed to underperformance until the management of the major producers is replaced by a more astute group of people. Ken

To: Alex who wrote (70714)	5/30/2001 9:57:01 AM
From: Ken Benes	Respond to of 116762

When a producer makes a forward sale, in many instances, he is using the funds to develop new mines. Aside from the increase in production, the producer is now shifting control of the gold producing asset from the company to the banker. If the banker has an agenda relative to a gold price, what a gift. He filters more gold into the market whose proceeds is used to increase additional supply that is under the control of the banker. The banker is happy, the producer is happy to have more funds to buy shovels, and the investor, poor guy, he doesn't stand a chance. Ken

To: Alex who wrote (70714)	5/30/2001 10:44:50 AM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Alex, Try Alice in Dairyland. The situation in the mining industry reminds me of dairy farming here in Wisconsin. In the early '70's government regulations forced many farmers to buy bulk tanks, build new milkhouses, and in some cases drill new wells. This was very expensive at a time when inflation rates and interest rates were beginning a long uptrend. Farmers picked up more cows to produce more milk in order to improve cash flow. Milk prices fell. Farmers raised more milk cows and increased herd numbers. Milk fell to all-time lows. Farmers went bankrupt. Then milk became volatile. In the last 10 or 15 years there have been several cycles where milk prices went from bottom barrel to near record levels. When it happens, prices do almost all of their movement up or down in at most a month or two. I suspect gold will do the same with at least a full double from bottom to top, just like milk. And it may have several legs to it before it's over--the last leg being an investor induced spike up unrelated to supply/demand fundamentals. Got gold? Got milk?

To: Alex who wrote (70714)	5/30/2001 10:56:04 AM
From: Michael Collings	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116762

Alex; Wow. TA must have changed a bunch since I learned the basics years ago, I always thought prior resistence becomes support. Isn't that around the 270 mark? Higher highs and higher lows still is an upward trend? I guess I'm not and never have been a gold stander. I just view gold as an alternative, simply another store of value. I especially like it because it is portable and not taxed. Real estate is a store of value but comes with an annual cost. Diamonds would be OK if I always carried around one of those eye glass thingies and knew anything about how to value one. Silver... you'd have to buy so much of it to store any wealth that it makes in unpractical. Gold is it. The alternative to holding fiat paper. Conspiracies... maybe. Doesn't much matter in the long run. In fact, maybe we should all thank the conspirators for getting the gold price under mining costs where we can feel comfortable buying it with the knowledge that NOTHING ever stays below production costs forever. Quite frankly, I think the recent run up in gold was just too much too fast and that a few traders on the comex saw an opportunity to take some quick profits and others joined the fray. Happens all the time. Really its no different than us. Someone posts that they are selling NEM at 24 and a few others decide to play along. Traders on the comex all know each other, eat lunch with each other and know who trades for certain clients. But all this doesn't change the fundamentals, nor will it be able to buck the trend indefinately. Once again, personally, I have no intention of trading these little movements, they are meaningless in the long run. CB sales and loaning? There has to be more, all the time, not less nor equal amounts annually to continue the POG dropping. Same holds for forward sales. We are talking about a limited natural resource that costs money to mine. My view (and I am sure others) is that the supply/demand factors will be in our favor in the years going forward. And I will wait.