To: Lucretius who wrote (105541 ) 5/30/2001 2:40:53 PM From: John Pitera Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258 Lets talk base metals -g- 12:10 ET 30-year: +2/32..5.854%....GNMAs: +3/32....$-¥: 120.32 When it comes to the deteriorating fundamental backdrop in the global economy, we continue to focus on the lack of credibility surrounding the V-shaped recovery expectations priced into the Eurodollar curve via the sluggishness in the base metals. While we cannot wait to take advantage of the potential upside in the likes of copper and aluminum once a combination of Fed easing, fiscal stimulus and perhaps most importantly, a paring of the physical overhangs come to fruition, now is simply not the time. This dynamic is supported by the continued inability of the base metals to take advantage of favorable supply side dynamics, while such sluggishness has also fit well with our skepticism towards the recovery and inflation exuberance that recently surged into the gold market. Of course, we all know what has happened on that front. Getting back to our last comment on the base metals complex, we would also argue that the sluggishness highlights the rather gloomy prospects for a reversal of the capital spending retrenchment. This is because we have seen an increasingly positive correlation between the base metals and information technology. Of interest, seven out of eight of the listed base metals producers in Japan posted profits for the most recent fiscal year on the back of a shift in focus to take advantage surge in demand from investment technology-related industries. Just off the top of our head, we would note that copper foil is used in computer circuit boards, while nickel metal is used in television displays and semiconductors.