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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (77650)	5/30/2001 9:58:58 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

i would compare the gaps in the chart as breakaway gaps off the top, just like the breakaway gaps off the 4/4 low, i believe this kind of forceful move indicates lower prices ahead and selling rallies will work better than buying dips, until we see a return of some good bearish sentiment. Agreed with you in early April but...Going to disagree with you this time. We have been seeing outflows from equity mutual funds for the past few days; that money is going to return sooner or later. In the meantime, shorts are pushing the market lower. To me that can only mean one thing in the near term, a big rally as the inflows start again(probably the same ones that pulled out recently). I believe "short interest" on the Nasdaq is going to peak this week or next. IMHO, the next time it increases will probably be late July. If business conditions have improved in some tech sectors, we are going to get increasing buybacks of shares. I am not only talking about new announcements; just companies buying their shares on the open market if their business conditions are better than the action in their stock price. Buybacks in any sector will be positive for the markets in general. The environment is much different today than it was in late March or early April. The same factors are not at work now. There are just too many differences from back then as I have noted in earlier posts--tax selling etc... The technicals may be indicating a similar pattern (except now to the downside) but the market is not the same. Would also note that selling by insiders has slowed down. Take a look at this chart of insider selling, supply decreasing. thestreet.com We shall see how it unfolds leading into July; I am still betting on Nasdaq 2500 by mid to late June even if it dips in the next few days. Should be back to testing Nasdaq 2300 in a couple of weeks. btw--My short term concern (3 to 5 days) is that the market prices in an Oracle profit warning that many are expecting. A lot of that pricing in may have happened in the last 2 to 2 days. No warning would be an incredible bonus reflecting a recovering tech environment even for competitively challenged companies like ORCL.

To: bobby beara who wrote (77650)	5/30/2001 11:25:09 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Yes Bobby, we need the clown destroyers to be on the most popular list again, but better yet, how about VXN above 84? A long, long way...By the way, when we hit 2095, I went back long for a short counter trend bounce, or at least to exploit tomorrow morning's future's induced "mark up". The next major support is naturally the May 14th low at around 2052 on the naz, so after they sell the mark up, it may be worthwhile to see if the selling stops above that support. If it does, we may see a little spirited mini rally, which I agree with you, should be sold. I take it you are donning your bear suit as well...(g). Zeev