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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsheet who wrote (1190)	5/30/2001 11:19:17 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4051

ABX has about three good years and then what? Through mid-04 they will have delivered 11.2 million ounces into the 340-350 hedges (and the rest, three million at spot). At that point they will have the same problem as the rest of the industry (yes, the heroin wears off sooner for the others, ABX is the "good" example)as only 900K @ 348 is locked in for 05 and 700K for 06. The 3.3 m for 2007 and beyond is misleading because of the very long dated contango. They can try and hedge to fill in those 04, 05, 06 dates, but right now a three year forward only captures 283, a four year 288. barrick.com In three years ABX will also start whistling past the graveyard on their ultra-low cost deposit at Pierna as well. Buly is going to get bigger (they will pick up TNX's neighboring Itetemia), but it is not especially low cost in a 265 environment. Finances: 539 million in working cap and 707 long term debt. Not that much flexibility, as they are going to have to be careful on the next project which they will likely have to buy. Despite their cocky attitude, time (2% contangos, depleting low cost resources) and current POG is not on their side.