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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KatayamaGorobei who wrote (19)	5/31/2001 10:18:23 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 1643

Updated Thu May 31 08:34 ET Technical Analysis: CME Lumber By Jeff Wilson Chicago, May 31 (BridgeNews) - Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Jly lumber gapped lower for the second consecutive session but this time it did not fill the downside gap. The downside acceleration Wednesday was matched by active long liquidation as open interest fell sharply. Last week's hook reversal down away from new contract highs and downside followthrough the past two sessions suggests Jly could test long-term support at $301.50 to $299.20. * * * CME JLY LUMBER (LB01N) 31 May 2001 488.00 -- weekly high from Nov 1996 422.00 -- weekly high from July 1999 376.00 -- May 22 session high and new contract high 374.66 -- weekly 62% retracement of November 1996 high to March 2001 low 364.33 -- weekly 75% retracement of July 1999 high to March 2001 low 362.00-356.00 -- May 23 downside gap 362.00-350.50 -- May 18 upside gap 360.50-359.80 -- triple top from October 1999 to February 2000 on weekly chart 360.00 -- natural pivot point from the number of degrees in a circle 350.50-340.50 -- May 17 upside gap 349.23 -- nine-day moving average 339.65 -- weekly 50% retracement of November 1996 high to March 2001 low 338.90 -- May's contract high 337.50-334.70 -- May 16 upside gap 333.87 -- weekly 62% retracement of July 1999 high to March 2001 low 332.10 -- Tuesday's session low -331.50 -- Wednesday's session high 327.70 -- 21-day moving average 325.70-324.80 -- May 15 upside gap 324.20 -- May's expiration price 323.00-314.80 -- May 14 upside gap >322.30 -- Wednesday's session low and settlement 315.20-312.80 -- downside gap from April 2000 on Jly-only continuation chart 313.20 -- May 4 session high and prior contract high 308.30 -- swing high from June 2000 306.65 -- weekly 50% retracement of July 1999 high to March 2001 low 307.00-305.90 -- May 11 upside gap 304.63 -- weekly 38% retracement of November 1996 high to March 2001 low 299.97 -- 40-day moving average 299.20 -- swing low support 288.87 -- 50-day moving average 287.00 -- prior contract high and double top from last July 286.80 -- April 20 swing high 285.60 -- October 1999 swing low on weekly nearby futures 262.50-260.00 -- April 11 upside gap 257.50 -- March 20 swing high 252.60 -- Feb. 2 swing high 239.80 -- Jly 2000 expiration price 237.00 -- Sep 2000 expiration price 235.20 -- Jly 2000 contract low 234.90 -- March 28 swing low 229.70 -- Feb. 26 swing low 227.00 -- contract low set on Jan. 19 223.00 -- June 1993 swing low on monthly active continuation chart 213.90 -- May's contract low set Feb. 26 212.10 -- Sep 2000 contract low set Sept. 7 209.60 -- June 1995 swing low on monthly active continuation chart 208.50 -- Nov 2000 expiration price 202.20 -- Nov 2000 contract low set Oct. 31 191.30 -- Mar contract low 184.60 -- Jan expiration price 180.40 -- Jan contract low set Jan. 12 NOTES: Jly's nine-day relative strength index was down four points to 42% on Wednesday's close. Jly rallied $149.00 in 84 sessions, a nearly 66% appreciation. With the funds and the commercials holding substantial net short positions and the small trader/hedger riding a major net long position, the market remains vulnerable to further downside pressure, especially with potential government action in the U.S./Canadian lumber dispute looming. End