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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4050)	5/31/2001 1:45:53 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

LOL <<BTW I continue to refuse to repent>> ... I know, and thus the conversation. May I, puulease? Let me quote: "Gutta cavat lapidem, non vi sed saepe cadendo" aka "The drop excavates the stone, not with force but by falling often." Now, what kind of a drop (wink wink) was the good ol' Ovid talking about? dj PS: thanks to google for the translation. This machine is an absolute monster.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4050)	5/31/2001 1:52:13 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

ROFL... Jay, you are correct. We should indeed lobby to rename this thread "The coming financially unhealthy event for my money if it was fully allocated to equity of 2001" I was having a "discussion" with a friend the other day who was trying to convince me that the market always rebounds 25% or so after fed rate cuts. He was oblivious to the fact that we have enjoyed more than 30% so far within the past few weeks (almost six months after the first rate cut?) and are now perhaps standing in the "so then what happens next" zone. Much like that instant at the very top of a toss in Disneyworld's "Tower of Terror" ride. You know, marked with that sort of weightless feeling in the pit of your stomach? The equity threads are so quiet John.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4050)	5/31/2001 11:33:31 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<I do not see an economic collapse either, just a financially unhealthy event .......>> Himm.........Well ya seem to be coming a wee bit closer to "repenting" yourself ... Sorry I just couldn't help me self ..... ;^) Look Jay, my position is that we already had somewhat of a collapse in equities. This in response to the current recession [ downturn, whatever ] In the postwar era we have had numerous recessions with the expected decline in equities.It would seem to me that if one expected a severe decline in equities from the lows one would also be forced to believe that the underlining economic condition would have to decline proportionately....... Now the NAZ is down top to bottom some 70%. If it goes another 20% down [now 90% overall ] thus we have a collapse....No? I guess the difference between us is: I think the collapse is over and you think that it still has a little bit more to run. About that dollar und said predictions.About six months ago I saw talking head after talking head on CNBC agreeing that it was a given [ not their words but their attitude ] that the dollar was going down. I have always believed that value is exactly equal to price. Predictions have no real standing.In the here and now the dollar is strong.And as such cheap imports are keeping competitors honest. <<Oil going up in price would be a one time event. >> A sustained oil spike would be like a large value added tax added on top of the current tax structure with the government spending the money over seas. One time maybe but could take a long time to recover from. I blame the years of stagflation on oil price rises. I also think much of the current economic problems are a result of higher oil <<Do not live in the past.>> But history is sucha great teacher........But you knew I would say that.....