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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (105783)	5/31/2001 1:45:04 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

I guess it depends on what deflationary means -- deflation in the price of a basket of goods -- or contracting credit. I think we can have contracting credit simultaneously with some rising prices ... that's what I think is likely, but I don't think we repeat the energy crisis. California is an isolated deal, IMO. People think about demand growth in pretty static terms -- it has to be in the process of tapering now while building goes on based upon demand extrapolation from the last 3 maybe 4 years. It's not a question of whether supply is going to beat demand, but when in the electricity and nat gas markets. Doesn't mean that we aren't settling into a higher base for NG, but a huge multiyear escalation of prices seems very unlikely.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (105783)	5/31/2001 1:47:55 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

<BTW, I just heard that Frontline will run a program on the California energy crisis. Blackout will air next Tuesday on most PBS stations. > Nice to know that the energy crisis has peaked.... <ng> DAK

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (105783)	5/31/2001 1:54:23 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 436258

pbs.org

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (105783)	5/31/2001 10:25:04 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 436258

>> I cannot understand how any coming stock/real estate collapse can be deflationary while the Fed is printing dollars at such an amazing clip. << The way I see it world bankers have been on a printing spree for years now. We have had inflation, it was just focused in financial assets such as stocks and bonds, and then it spilled over into real estate. Now we have a deflation in financial assets, i.e. stocks and that money has to go somewhere, correct? It cannot just disappear. It is going to go into raw materials and commodities. Of course rising prices for energy and other commodities are going to put the squeeze on corporate profits even more and draw more money away from stocks and more into raw materials creating a self fulfilling prophecy until we have another commodities bubble that bursts and we repeat the process all over again. This happens every 20 years or so. Corporate profits may deflate Stock prices may deflate Bond prices may deflate Real estate may deflate Raw Materials and Commodities will inflate