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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (73982)	5/31/2001 3:35:31 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

You are partially correct. RE: I think Sun has no concept of latency of memory devices. My background is in VLSI design for aerospace communication. However, I have been out of HW engineering for way too long. Even then, memory was not my forte. My interest in Rambus is partial curiosity about the technology, though I admit that I am mostly looking at it to make money. RE: I think Sun is wondering about short side of a RMBS position he may have. Somehow today stock price action is different than he may have expected. Actually not. I expected the stock to rebound after the big market drop we had yesterday. I estimated RMBS will probably rise 7%, so I placed a short trade at $11.02. That RMBS crossed over the $10.50 line was not unexpected. That line got broken several times yesterday and as such lost its value as a strong resistance level. My read on RMBS is still very bearish, though not as bearish as when I shorted it at 15. On a related note, one does not need to fully understand the technology to successfully trade tech stocks. As an engineer I find the technical details discussed here interesting. As a trader/investor they are of marginal value. Nor am I competing in the market against those who buy/sell based on the voltage levels. More important than anything else that we discussed here today, is what NVLS will tell in their quarterly update tonight. I expect them to come negative, or at least not as positive as the market expects. This is from the very short term perspective. In a somewhat longer term perspective, it is the various court rulings that matter. Unless Rambus can lay claims to DDR, which I do not believe they can, their future as the king of DRAM is shut. I am not convinced that RMBS is a good investment. One may argue that it makes a good speculation, but an investment it is not. There is simply too many unknowns hanging over its head. I also became bearish on RMBS about two years ago, not because of any technical merits of RDRAM. But because quite simply they were charging too much for their licensing and they were taking too long to be needed for mass production. I knew that the other DRAM makers would rather get together and utilize the time for alternative designs than sit idle and pay Rambus. To me it was that simple. BTW, I never said that Rambus is dead dead dead. Nor do I think that it will be. I just think that at 17x revenue and 44x next years EPS, a small company that is fighting many battles against much bigger boys is just too over valued. regards, Sun Tzu