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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (7337)	5/31/2001 6:36:20 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

carig, You're obviously right on with your comments on hard drives and memory being perfect examples of products where sales grew but investments were poor, over the past several to many years. The question is, how can one see that coming? Either of those industries could have represented excellent investments, but the technology was successfully commoditized and the specifics of volume production made costs/Mb drop rapidly. Is it obvious in retrospect? Does the inability to differentiate product always imply doom for margins? Are all of the box-, router-, optical-communication-manufacturers likely to remain in trouble from here on out? At the same time, you've commented that commodities are the place to be for the coming few years. How do you reconcile the poor outlook for "tech" commodities while at the same time saying raw materials companies will experience healthy period of growth?